ASEAN Summit and international trade

The ASEAN Summit and Related Summit meetings of heads of state, presidents and prime ministers of some 20 countries, is fast approaching in two weeks to be held at the PICC in Manila.

President Marcos and various Cabinet officials led by Executive Secretary Ralph Recto, who is the chairman the ASEAN National Organizing Council, should be  super busy now in the preparations. Being an economics guy, Mr. Recto will likely make trade and commerce, investments and AI among the key agenda on those important days.

I checked the monthly merchandise exports of countries at the World Trade Organization (WTO) database. I limited the data comparison to January-August of each year 2024, 2025 and 2026. Here are the key results, in average billion US dollars per month.

One, China exports jumping like a kangaroo: 291.1 in 2024, 308.8 in 2025, 374.5 in 2026. This is larger than the combined exports in 2026 of US’ 205.2, Mexico’s 68.7, Canada’s 53.2, Brazil’s 31.2, Chile’s 10.4, for a total of 368.7.

US exports are not catching up with China: 171.7 in 2024, 179.9 in 2025, 205.2 in 2026. Or China exports this year are 1.8 times larger than the US.

Two, Hong Kong exports jumped big time from 52.3 in 2024 to 89.1 in 2026. It has overtaken four countries this year: Italy with 55.8 in 2024 and 64.5 in 2026; France with 53.0 in 2024 and 60.1 in 2026; South Korea with 56.2 in 2024 and 86.7 in 2026; Japan with 57.1 in 2024 and 64.7 in 2026. Later this year HK will also overtake Netherlands with 75.6 in 2024 and 89.3 in 2026.

Three, South Korea exports in 2026 are larger than five G7 member-countries – Japan, Italy, France, Canada with 53.2, UK with 47.3. Germany is still the third largest exporter in the world with 157.4 in 2026, behind China and the US.

Four, Taiwan exports also jumped big time, 38.5 in 2024, 49.9 in 2025, 71.8 in 2026. Like South Korea, its exports are larger than five G7 member-countries.

Five, Japan is slowing in exports, overtaken this year by three neighbors – Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan – when those three economies have lower exports than Japan just two years ago. Singapore can overtake Japan later this year too.

Six, Singapore also kicking up high, 41.6 in 2024 to 63.4 in 2026, overtaking Italy, France, Canada, UK, Belgium and many other Europeans.

Seven, Vietnam also on exports highway, from 33.2 in 2024 to 46.8 in 2026, overtaking Russia with 39.0, Spain with 39.2, India with 40.9. These three countries have larger exports than Vietnam in 2024.

Eight, Malaysia on similar path with Vietnam with 26.5 in 2024 to 42.3 in 2026, also overtaking Russia, Spain, India, Poland with 37.3, Australia with 31.5, Brazil with 31.3. These six countries have exports larger than Malaysia in 2024.

Nine, Thailand with 24.6 in 2024 and 33.3 in 2026 has overtaken Australia and Brazil, these two have larger exports than Thailand just two years ago.

Ten, five of the top 10 largest merchandise exporters in the world this year are in Asia: first is China, fifth is Hong Kong, sixth is South Korea, seventh is Taiwan, ninth is Japan. Singapore will likely be tenth by end-2026 and overtake Italy.

The Philippines has the smallest exports among the ASEAN-6 with only 8.0 in 2026, Indonesia has 24.2.

For Philippine international merchandise trade, January-September period of each year, here are the key results, in billion US dollars except percent.

One, our merchandise exports have increased from 55.1 in 2023 to 63.1 in 2025 and 73.9 in 2026. Electronics, especially semiconductors, comprised 60 percent of total exports.

Two, the US remains our number one market, 8.5 in 2023 to 14.9 in 2026. Its share has increased from 15.5 percent in 2023 to 20.2 percent of total in 2026.

Three, Hong Kong and China are our second and third largest markets, combined exports of 14.9 in 2023 to 19.8 in 2026. Their combined share was 27.0 percent of our total exports in 2023 and 26.8 percent in 2026.

Four, Japan is our fourth largest buyer with 8.0 in 2026 but the share has declined from 14.3 percent of total exports in 2023 to 10.8 percent in 2026.

Five, our merchandise imports are rising fast, from 94.5 in 2023 to 100.6 in 2025 and 121.1 in 2026. Electronics comprised 32 percent of total imports in 2026, followed by mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials at 14 percent of total.

Six, China remains the number one source of our imports, 21.8 in 2023 to 28.7 in 2025 and 33.9 in 2026. The share has increased from 23.1 percent of total imports in 2023 to 28 percent in 2026.

Seven, South Korea is now our second largest source of imports, from only 6.4 in 2023 to 17.7 in 2026. Its share has increased from 6.8 percent of total imports in 2023 to 14.7 percent in 2026.

Eight, Japan and US share to total Philippine imports keep declining, their combined share falling from 14.8 percent of total in 2023 to 13 percent in 2026.

Nine, the share of our five neighbors Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam have declined from 29.5 percent of total imports in 2023 to 23.6 percent in 2026.

Ten, our merchandise trade deficit is rising from -39.4 in 2023 to -47.2 in 2026. This year, our trade surplus with the US is 8.2 and our trade deficit with China is -25.6.

The Philippines should focus on improving its industrial, manufacturing and exports capacity, instead of war mongering versus China. Our average exports this year of $8 billion/month is only 1/48 or equivalent to only half-day exports of China’s $375 billion/month.