Farm output likely contracted in Q3, decline to persist until Q1 2027

MANILA, Philippines —  Agricultural output is expected to have contracted in the third quarter, with the decline likely to persist until the first quarter next year amid the El Niño, according to the Department of Agriculture.

“There might have been a contraction because of the habagat. That has a big effect,” Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. told reporters on the sidelines of the Third Kadiwa ng Pangulo Agri Expo 2026 yesterday.

Last Monday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said that the Southwest Monsoon or habagat, which started in May, has officially ended.

The habagat brings heavy rainfall and flooding.

Tiu Laurel said that agricultural output might have continued to post growth in the third quarter if not for the impact of the heavy rains and flooding.

Farm output grew by 2.9 percent in the second quarter, reversing a 0.3-percent contraction in the first quarter.

With the impact of El Niño expected to be more pronounced next year, he said that farm output could continue to post a contraction in the fourth quarter until the first quarter of 2027.

However, he said the impact of El Niño for this year is expected to be less than predicted with warmer temperatures now anticipated to be felt in January next year instead of next month.

“It’s more of next year that will take a hit,” he said.

While the El Niño is expected to affect agricultural output, he said there is no need to panic.

“We have enough food supply. Prices are actually stable,” he said.

He said the country’s chicken supply is good for 125 days, while pork supply is sufficient for 170 days.

On the local hog raisers’ call for President Marcos to raise pork tariffs as farm gate prices decline due to imports, Tiu Laurel said that Cabinet members are holding a meeting to discuss the matter.

He said the government is allocating funds for interventions to mitigate the effects of El Niño.

Government interventions include putting in place additional solar-powered irrigation, solar pumps, aerator for fish ponds and additional fertilizers.

Tiu Laurel said the government could deploy the Tulong sa Ating Disadvantaged/Displaced Workers or the community-based assistance to provide emergency employment in areas where planting is no longer possible.

Meanwhile, more fertilizers and seeds would be given in areas with normal water levels to support production.

As food inflation accelerated in September, Tiu Laurel said the Kadiwa is expected to help Filipinos gain access to more affordable agricultural products including the P20-per-kilo rice.

Food inflation recorded a faster annual increase of 6.8 percent in September from the previous month’s 4.6 percent.

“Anyone who visits the Kadiwa ng Pangulo now can buy P20 rice,” Tiu Laurel said.

Previously, the P20-per-kilo rice program was targeted for vulnerable sectors.