Jet fuel shortage likely hitting Asia by June

MANILA, Philippines — Things are looking bleak for Asian carriers as a jet fuel shortage may likely hit the aviation industry by June, leading to more flight cancellations, according to experts.

In a statement, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) told authorities to prepare for jet fuel supply to run dry by June, as warned by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Willie Walsh, IATA director general, said Asian carriers like Philippine Airlines (PAL) and Cebu Pacific are starting to cut scheduled flights, and the same could happen to European airlines.

“The IEA’s assessment of potential jet fuel shortages is sobering. We have also estimated that by the end of May we could start to see some cancellations in Europe for lack of jet fuel, and this is already happening in parts of Asia,” Walsh said.

He asked regulators to come up with emergency measures in case the situation leads to rationing, wherein jet fuel may be bought in limited volumes.

Walsh added that the use-it-or-lose-it rule on airport slots should be relaxed temporarily.

Based on an IEA forecast, Asia and the Pacific will suffer one of the worst shortages for naphtha, liquefied petroleum gas and jet fuel, resulting from output cuts and supply disruptions due to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East.

Globally, aviation analyst Cirium said airline capacity in Asia will decline in May, as carriers are trying to keep their jet fuel inventory intact for high-demand flights.

Cirium senior consultant Richard Evans said PAL is cutting planned capacity for May by nearly 10 percent on a yearly basis, lining up closely with flight reductions among regional peers.

“Southeast Asian carriers appear to have been greatly impacted, consistent with media reports of fuel supply shortages in Vietnam and the Philippines. Airlines from Malaysia and Indonesia are also cutting planned schedules by around 10 to 15 percent,” Evans said.

Both PAL and Cebu Pacific are taking out several routes from their flight network until October. Still, they said their jet fuel inventories would last them until June, and they are negotiating with suppliers for additional orders.

The bright spot for the country’s largest carriers is that both of them raised higher profits in 2025, arming them with enough capital to soften the blow on the business.

According to IATA’s monitor, jet fuel prices have gone down on a weekly basis by seven percent to $184.63 per barrel as of April 17, although this is far from the pre-shock level of below $100.

Meanwhile, President Marcos ordered the Department of Energy (DOE) to ensure a continuous and adequate oil supply to prevent stagnation.

“The President insisted to Energy Secretary Sharon (Garin) that the supply of crude or petroleum products should not be disrupted, because the President does not want a stagnation,” Presidential Communications Office Undersecretary Claire Castro said, when asked about Marcos’ instructions during the 4th Unified Package for Livelihoods, Industry, Food and Transport committee meeting at Malacañang yesterday. — Alexis Romero