Split Senate seen: Marcos, Duterte slates both falter in midterm battle

MANILA, Philippines — Neither President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. nor Vice President Sara Duterte would be fully satisfied with the results of the 2025 midterm elections, as senatorial candidates from their rival camps failed to secure a decisive edge.

With Duterte’s impeachment trial looming in the 20th Congress, the 2025 midterms were expected to be pivotal—not just in determining her acquittal or conviction, but in showing who truly commands influence over the Senate.

The results so far, and their possible 'trial' roles

As of 4:12 p.m. on May 13, 97.28% of votes had been transmitted. Reelectionist Sen. Bong Go, a longtime supporter of the Duterte clan, topped the race with at least 26.4 million votes, according to multiple transparency servers.

Trailing him was an unexpected contender: former senator Bam Aquino, who notched 20.6 million votes. Aquino, hailing from thinning political dynasty, was forecast in pre-election surveys to barely break into the top 12. He is notably neither pro-Duterte or pro-Marcos.

Aquino has remained largely silent on the impeachment trial, saying his focus is on issues more relevant to the public. Still, he has pledged to remain fair and independent if called to serve as an impeachment judge.

In third place is Sen. Bato dela Rosa, a former police chief under Rodrigo Duterte, with 20.2 million votes. Widely seen as a Duterte loyalist, Dela Rosa is expected to support the vice president in the impeachment trial.

Rep. Erwin Tulfo (ACT-CIS Partylist) came in fourth with 16.8 million votes, the strongest performance among Marcos-endorsed candidates. But given his consistent lead in pre-election surveys, his rank indicates as an underperformance. Tulfo did not vote when the House impeached Duterte and has declined to comment publicly on the upcoming trial.

Former senator Kiko Pangilinan, who initially wasn’t expected to make the cut, surged to fifth with 15.08 million votes so far. The comeback was considered a shock to many including himself, given disinformation against him while on the campaign trail. Compared to his 2022 vice presidential bid, where he earned 9.3 million votes, the jump was significant.

Pangilinan has also remained mum on how he might vote in the impeachment trial.

Another surprise sixth win was Rep. Rodante Marcoleta (SAGIP Partylist) with 14.8 million votes. As part of Duterte’s slate, many expect him to vote for acquittal.

Former senators Ping Lacson and Tito Sotto followed in seventh and eighth place with 14.8 million and 14.5 million votes, respectively, indicating their staunch bases. Though both are veteran lawmakers and Marcos allies, their numbers fell short of survey expectations—particularly in Sotto’s case, who was projected to land in the top four.

Rounding out the top 11 are three more from the Marcos camp: incumbent Sen. Pia Cayetano (14.3 million votes), Rep. Camille Villar (13.3 million), and Sen. Lito Lapid (13.1 million).

Villar, however, appeared to distance herself from the Marcos slate late in the campaign following former President Duterte’s arrest and transfer to the International Criminal Court in The Hague. She campaigned with the Dutertes instead.

In 12th place is Sen. Imee Marcos, the president’s sister, with 13.03 million votes. Imee publicly split from her brother’s administration after Duterte’s arrest. She opted to align herself with the Davao bloc, even promoting allegations of anomalies against the Marcos government. She has stated she would vote to acquit the vice president.

What does all this mean?

Marcos initially fielded 12 candidates, though Imee ultimately broke from the slate. Duterte, meanwhile, backed 10 senatorial bets.

Of these, six Marcos-backed picks secured Senate seats. Counting Villar, the Duterte bloc also won five.

Without Villar, the Marcos camp holds five seats: Tulfo, Lacson, Sotto, Cayetano, and Lapid. Duterte’s five would be Go, Dela Rosa, Marcoleta, Villar, and Imee.

Neither camp has claimed victory. Their post-election statements conveyed disappointment.

“While the outcome was not what we had hoped for, our commitment to the people remains unwavering. We will continue to hold the government accountable, advocate for the issues that matter, and work tirelessly to serve as a strong and constructive opposition,” Duterte said.

Marcos acknowledged setbacks but said he remained committed to working with all parties.

“We may not have won every seat, but our work and mission continue. To those who did not make it, your courage to stand for public service is deeply respected. Public service goes beyond elections,” Marcos said.

Despite Duterte’s apparent dissatisfaction, some observers view the outcome as a quiet victory. Her slate performed well despite lacking the imcumbent’s machinery.

While senators’ final votes in her trial cannot be predicted, Duterte needs just nine votes for acquittal. Assuming her five endorsed candidates back her, she requires four more.

Incumbent composition. Sen. Robin Padilla has declared his intent to block the impeachment. Sen. Alan Cayetano, a staunch ally of Rodrigo Duterte, and Sen. Mark Villar, Camille’s brother, have expressed support. Senate President Pro Tempore Jinggoy Estrada has also criticized Duterte’s ICC arrest and called for fairness.

Most senators have stayed silent on the matter, heeding Senate President Francis Escudero’s call to refrain from commenting until the trial begins in June.

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