Rice crisis could be worse in 2024 – farmers’ group

MANILA, Philippines — The rice crisis could be worse in 2024 amid the continued spike in the retail price of the grain despite the harvest season, farmers’ group Federation of Free Farmers (FFF) national chairman Raul Montemayor warned yesterday.

“At least, we were able to import a lot in the first half of 2023 before the international prices spiked and imports declined,” Montemayor told The Star.

President Marcos was forced to enforce Executive Order (EO) 39 on Sept. 5 imposing a price cap of P43 and P45 per kilo on regular and well-milled rice amid the high retail price of the staple.

Marcos lifted the price ceiling on Oct. 4, less than a month after the imposition of the EO as the peak harvest season started.

Montemayor added that if the high international prices persist in 2024, the country expects less imports than in 2023.

“With no significant increase in local production, supply dwindled during the lean months (July to August), resulting in high rice prices locally. We don’t expect local production to increase significantly,” Montemayor noted.

According to Montemayor, the country could experience tightness in supply again around February and March before the dry season harvest and in July to September next year.

“Amidst all these, we lack accurate and credible data on which to base our analysis and decisions,” Montemayor added.

Montemayor has said that the Philippine Statistics Authority failed to address the five million metric tons difference in the palay production last year.

He said that despite the peak palay harvest season starting October, there was an upward trend in the retail price of rice.

“We are seeing two reasons here, one, because of high imported rice. The high imported rice affects the domestic price, causing the (farmgate) price of palay to go up. Second, it is possible that our harvest is not that big, contrary to the claim of the Department of Agriculture (DA),” Montemayor added.

According to him, it was a previous trend that the retail price of rice goes down during the palay harvest but said it did not happen this time.

Montemayor said the expected harvest during the dry season cropping next year would be further affected by the El Niño phenomenon.

“While we still have ample supply now because of the harvest, traders are anticipating that it will not be enough until the next harvest in March. There is speculation especially if no imported rice would come. About two to three months from now, what would be our situation especially with the El Niño, our dry season crop in March and April would be affected and it could be worse in July, August and September, during the lean months next year,” he explained.

At the same time, Montemayor said that the prevailing price of palay during the peak harvest was only P25 per kilo but traders are trying to maximize their profit by selling at P60 per kilo.

He said as of now the farmgate price of palay reached P30 per kilo.

Based on the monitoring of the DA in Metro Manila markets, the retail price of local regular milled rice already reached as high as P56 per kilo; higher than the local well-milled rice of P55 per kilo; local premium rice, P60 per kilo and local special rice, P68 per kilo.

Imported well-milled rice reached as high as P58 per kilo; imported premium rice, P69 per kilo and imported special rice, P65 per kilo.