MANILA, Philippines — State weather bureau PAGASA declared the end of La Niña—or the condition that increases the likelihood of having above-normal rainfall.
In its final La Niña advisory, PAGASA said that most of the climate models predict a neutral phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—or the recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific—from March to June 2023.
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There will be an "increased likelihood of a transition to El Niño" or the warm phase of ENSO after.
El Niño increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions, which could lead to dry spells and droughts in some areas of the Philippines.
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Although the cold phase condition has already ended, La Niña’s "lag effect may still influence the probability of above normal rainfall conditions in the coming months," PAGASA stressed.
Above-normal rainfall could result in heavy rainfall, floods, flash floods, and rain-induced landslides in some highly-vulnerable areas.
In its outlook for March, PAGASA said the northeast monsoon or amihan is expected to wane, while the easterlies—or warm winds blowing from the east—will become predominant.
At least one tropical cyclone may develop next month, it added.