MANILA, Philippines — A key official of the House of Representatives has sounded an early alarm that the country might suffer a shortage in the supply of rice in the coming months, following the reported drought in the Yangtze River area in China.
“I’m not trying to sound negative, given all the other crises we have to deal with, but I think, now that we can see the problems ahead before they can come, we have a chance to act,” Albay Rep. Joey Salceda, who chairs the House ways and means committee, said yesterday.
“We have a 30-day window before the dry cropping season starts. Crucial 30 days for action,” Salceda added, calling on the Department of Agriculture for “heavy support” on the rice crop dry season and “secure contracts on imports to guarantee rice supply.”
The rice crop dry season starts next month and peaks in November.
News reports have it that China’s Yangtze River, one of the world’s largest and longest rivers, is suffering from drought. The river feeds into some of the country’s major sources of imported rice.
“If a global shortage takes place, rice prices could increase to P48 per kilogram by November, unless the country sees a strong dry season harvest and secures import contracts from foreign governments,” Salceda said.
At the same time, he warned that there are also “indications that the Mekong River (Lancang River before it leaves China’s borders) could suffer similar issues.”
“They have the same source. That’s not good for our rice supply, because Thailand and Vietnam rely heavily on the Mekong for rice production,” the lawmaker said.
“Myanmar is also suffering from lower rice production, as some agricultural areas have been affected by civil strife. India, our major non-ASEAN source of imported rice, is likewise suffering drought in some key areas,” he added.
Thus, one can almost certainly predict that there will be global rice supply issues within the next three to four months, according to the Bicolano lawmaker.
“Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund of P10 billion has been nearly filled up for this year, by January to June rice tariff collections,” he said. “Hence, there are available funds for preparatory support for rice farmers.”
Salceda also proposed that the Philippines secure this early its import channels to ensure that it will have enough rice supply should a global rice shortage take place.
“Of course, droughts in China’s agricultural areas will also mean lower overall global rice supply, unless other countries achieve bumper crops, so I think we need to secure some baseline level of contracts on a government-to-government (G2G) procurement basis with Vietnam and Thailand already,” he said.
“We did that last year, just when export bans were also being imposed. That was a lifesaver during the pandemic. During the worst of times for global trade, our rice prices were stable. We need to secure such contracts ahead of time again,” he added.
The lawmaker explained that if a global rice shortage happens and the Philippines does not secure rice import contracts and strong domestic production, Filipinos could see rice retail prices jump to P45 per kilogram for regular milled and P48 per kilogram for well-milled rice by November – when the country will have exhausted much of the July harvest.
“I’m sure (President Marcos) has the diplomatic channels to secure such contracts already, following his G2G procurement model for fertilizers,” Salceda said.