Defense expert: China to face energy insecurity, if...

MANILA, Philippines - China would face “enduring energy insecurity” if it continues to be assertive in the South China Sea, a defense expert said.

Koh Swee Lean Collin, an associate research fellow at the Singapore-based S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said China is facing the risk of being denied access to sea routes by possible adversaries.

“If Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea continues at this rate, Beijing may have to face enduring energy insecurity,” Collin said in a commentary published last week by India-based think tank Observer Research Foundation.

“Beijing continues to face the long-term potential risk of being denied access to the vital sea routes by potential adversaries on which Chinese energy shipping depends heavily,” he added.

Collin explained China would have to rely on massive energy imports for the foreseeable future to meet demand.

He cited a report by the United States Energy Information Administration stating that China would surpass the US as the largest net oil importer this year.

“For the foreseeable future Beijing will have to continue relying on massive energy imports, chiefly from the Middle East and Africa,” Collin said.

Collin noted China National Petroleum Corp., a state-owned oil and gas firm, had indicated the Indian Ocean remains the primary source of China’s energy supplies.

“Because China’s energy imports from the Indian Ocean region invariably have to pass through the Malacca Strait and the South China Sea before reaching the ports dotting the southern coastal regions of China, Beijing has every reason to be concerned about geopolitical developments in the area,” he said.

Such situation led to what Collin called the “Malacca Dilemma,” which is “deeply felt by the Chinese leadership.”

“This is not to say that the Malacca Strait littoral states or any extra-regional power is foolhardy enough to deny access to Chinese shipping at the expense of economic fallout, given the growing interdependence between Chinese economy and the rest of the world,” the defense expert said.

“Yet it does not help that the South China Sea in recent years has seen a spike in tensions. Chinese actions lately in the South China Sea run contrary to Beijing’s desire to maintain a harmonious periphery in order to facilitate its socio-economic development,” he added.

Collin cited the Chinese Coast Guard’s firing of water cannon at Filipino fishermen in Panatag Shoal, internationally known as Scarborough Shoal, off Zambales province that is well within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.

Also cited in his commentary was China’s effort to block the Philippines’ access to its military installation in Ayungin Shoal in Palawan.

“Recent Chinese provocations in the South China Sea were not without response from Beijing’s neighbors. On the appearance, the Southeast Asian claimants, save for the Philippines perhaps, continued on cordial relations with China,” Collin said.

“Yet despite the cordiality, it is becoming obvious that a countervailing coalition is shaping up in the South China Sea.”

Collin noted efforts by some Southeast Asian countries like the Philippines to boost their ties with other extra-regional powers like the US, India and Japan.

“Topping these off has been intensification of capability buildups by various Southeast Asian militaries, partly with China in mind at least,” Collin said.

“In light of these developments, China will face an increasingly ‘non-harmonious’ South China Sea neighborhood that does not bode well for ameliorating its Malacca Dilemma.”

Collin said China’s energy insecurity “may sharpen over time in the foreseeable future,” as claimants in the region are gradually establishing countervailing measures against its assertiveness.

“The ball is therefore in Beijing’s courtyard, if it wishes to cultivate a more harmonious ‘southern backyard’ to address its energy angst in the long term,” he said.