Palace: We're not on the brink of war with China over Panatag

MANILA, Philippines - Despite rising tensions, countries with claims in the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) – particularly the Philippines and China – “are nowhere on the brink of armed conflict,” Malacañang said yesterday.

“We have continued to conduct a peaceful discussion with our Chinese counterparts and we have done it through diplomatic means and we will continue to maintain a policy of de-escalation,” presidential spokesman Edwin Lacierda told a press briefing.

He said the Philippines hopes to reach a “mutual and diplomatic solution” to the impasse as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is in the process of drafting a code of conduct on the West Philippine Sea.

“China has also voiced preference for a mutual and diplomatic solution, so we hope that even while we are drafting the code of conduct, we can exhibit restraint between the two nations and we are going to maintain a peaceful and diplomatic stance towards the resolution of conflicts involving the Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal,” Lacierda said.

On whether the absence of a code of conduct would lead to armed conflict, Lacierda said “that’s something that we are not prepared to say right now.” 

But prospects of solving the disputes “seem to be diminishing” after a recent failure by the 10-nation ASEAN grouping to hammer out a code of conduct that would govern actions in the sea, the think tank International Crisis Group (ICG) said in a report.

“Without a consensus on a resolution mechanism, tensions in the South China Sea can easily spill over into armed conflict,” warned Paul Quinn-Judge, the ICG’s program director for Asia.

“As long as ASEAN fails to produce a cohesive South China Sea policy, a binding set of rules on the handling of disputed claims cannot be enforced.”

The rival claims have for decades made the area one of the region’s potential military flashpoints, with Vietnam and China engaging in sea conflicts in 1974 and 1998 that left dozens of military personnel dead.

An annual meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers ended in disarray early this month when it failed to agree on a joint statement, a first in its 45-year history, because of divisions over the West Philippine Sea.

Meeting host Cambodia was widely seen to have backed China, a close ally. This derailed a campaign by the Philippines for a tough ASEAN position against China.

The Brussels-based ICG said in its report on Tuesday that China had “worked actively to exploit” the divisions in ASEAN by offering preferential treatment to members of the bloc that supported its position in the dispute.

“A lack of unity among China’s rival claimants, coupled with the weakness of the regional multilateral framework, has hampered the search for a solution,” the report said.

“All of the trends are in the wrong direction, and prospects of resolutions are diminishing.”

The report also noted that China and the rival claimants had continued to expand their navies and coast guards amid the dispute, due in part to domestic political pressures and rising nationalism among its citizens.

The ICG said the best way to ease the tensions would be for the rival claimants to agree on ways to share the natural resources on offer in the South China Sea.

A 14-year-old report of a fact-finding team from the US Congress said China, through the years, was able to transform some reefs and islets in the West Philippine Sea into “unsinkable” aircraft carriers and naval bases.

“The naval bases, in fact, serve as stationary aircraft or helicopter carriers,” the US report said.

The report also said heavy guns and powerful radars were in place on Johnson Reef (Mabini Reef), Subi Reef (Zamora Reef), Fiery Cross Reef (Kagitingan Reef) Cuarterion Reef (Calderon Reef), Gaven Reef (Gaven), Mckeenan (Chigua) reef and Mischief Reef.

It said Chinese forces also have helicopter-borne C-701 anti-ship missiles. – With Pia Lee-Brago, Jaime Laude