Sonza downplays survey results

MANILA, Philippines - Kilusang Bagong Lipunan (KBL) vice presidential candidate Jay Sonza belittled yesterday political surveys being conducted by the Social Weather Stations (SWS) and Pulse Asia, saying the figures they are using do not represent anything.

“The figure does not even represent one percent of the voters so how can it predict leading candidates? Anything that is below one percent does not represent anything,” Sonza told editors and reporters of The STAR yesterday.

He said even elementary students can compute and determine if the 2,000 respondents of the surveys can be used as basis for getting the pulse of the 40 million voters.

Sonza, a former ABS-CBN executive, said surveys are supposed to be used only for internal monitoring and not for public consumption.

“In my days with ABS CBN we conduct daily surveys but it’s for internal consumption only,” he said.

Sonza added that political realities in the country would defy any survey result in the coming election.

“What the survey firm failed to consider is the clannish and command votes among the various regions in the country, which has been proven to be a major factor in the victory of senatorial candidates in the past election,” he said.

Among the demographics that historically deliver command votes for their candidates are the Bicolanos, Ilonggos, Ilocanos and the Kapampangans.

Sonza said the Bicolano vote has consistently sent candidates to the Senate; the Ilonggos have elected Sen. Miriam Santiago, while the Ilocanos are expected to deliver command votes when needed.

Aside from this, Sonza also pointed out the church bloc vote -- the Iglesia ni Cristo, Ang Dating Daan and the Kingdom of Jesus Christ (the Name Above Every Name) of Pastor Apollo Quiboloy in Davao City, which could be considered a swing vote.

He said he is not worried if he is tailing in the recent surveys because his roots from Pampanga and Iloilo, the KBL support from the Ilocos and other areas, and the votes from Mindanao will surely defy the political surveys in the country.

Gordon: Survey firms not reliable

Bagumbayan presidential bet Sen. Richard Gordon shared Sonza’s sentiments.

The former Olongapo mayor said he is not surprised that he only got two percent in the latest pre-election survey conducted by Pulse Asia because surveys only favor those who pay for them.

The latest Pulse Asia survey revealed that the tandem of Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino (PMP) standard-bearer former President Joseph Estrada and running mate Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay has surged to the number two spot.

Pulse Asia’s latest pre-election survey also showed Estrada and Nacionalista Party (NP) bet Sen. Manuel Villar tied at second place with 20 percent each.

Binay, showing strong improvement, also overtook NP bet Sen. Loren Legarda for second place (28 percent versus 20 percent).

Pulse Asia said Binay gained nine percentage points in electoral support while Legarda’s score dropped from 23 percent in March to 20 percent in a survey conducted from April 23 to 25.

Liberal Party standard-bearer Sen. Benigno Aquino III is still leading the surveys with 39 percent or four out of 10 Filipino voters showing preference for him. Aquino is leading by 19 points over Villar and Estrada.

Administration bet Gilbert Teodoro of Lakas-Kampi-CMD came in a distant fourth with seven percent; followed by Bangon Pilipinas candidate Bro. Eddie Villanueva with three percent.

Gordon ranked sixth with two percent; followed by disqualified presidential candidate Vetellano Acosta of the KBL with one percent.

The other presidential candidates received less than one percent of the respondents’ votes: independent candidate Nicanor Perlas (0.3 percent), Ang Kapatiran Party’s John Carlos de los Reyes (0.2 percent); and Sen. Jamby Madrigal (0.1 percent).

Gordon earlier filed a P650,000 damage suit against pollsters Pulse Asia and SWS for allegedly conducting biased surveys and for not asking permission to include his name in the pre-election surveys.

Erap: Don’t count me out

Estrada, meanwhile, expressed confidence that he will pull a surprise in the May 10 elections by winning it.

The former president made the statement in reaction to the ABS-CBN’s projection that Aquino and Villar were the two frontrunners in the presidential race, citing the latest Pulse Asia survey.

“But that is not all there is to it. The real significance of the story is that his (Villar) popularity is falling while mine is rising. Our paths have merely intersected at one point. Our campaign is right on track. In fact, preliminary reports from our own internal survey are more than encouraging in this regard,” Estrada said.

He also cited last Wednesday’s newspaper stories about Aquino warning the nation of mass action if he loses, which means he was cheated.

“Senator Aquino is being presumptuous. Somebody should remind him that there are still nine days to go before the end of the campaign period. And that is a long time. In that span of time voter preference could change,” Estrada said, adding that the ground is shifting under Aquino and Villar.

“While I am disappointed by the not so subtle projection that this is only a two-horse race, I do not begrudge the organizers of that TV show for excluding me. I suppose the decision has been reached, being heavily influenced by the results of surveys mainly from Pulse Asia and SWS,” he said.

Estrada said with the wide publicity and significance accorded to the surveys by the mass media, the public and the media itself tend to take the published reports as “gospel truth without explaining much about their probative value.”

“Thus, these surveys are being used as self-fulfilling prophecies of these so-called frontrunners. Everyone knows by now that I have already caught up with Senator Villar in that survey. There is nothing surprising about it. Some people refuse to see the evidence before their own eyes,” Estrada said, stressing that the people are solidly behind his candidacy. - Jose Rodel Clapano, Mike Frialde, Ric Sapnu