MANILA, Philippines - The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said yesterday it is closely monitoring the early termination of the northeast monsoon due to the prevailing El Niño phenomenon.
“The warm temperatures experienced in most parts of the country in the past several days could be a sign of an early onset of the summer season,” Pagasa deputy administrator Nathaniel Cruz told The STAR in a phone interview.
“We are closely monitoring the possible early termination of the northeast monsoon,” Cruz said, adding that the “warmer temperature means decreasing intensity of the northeast monsoon which signals the early start of the dry season.”
The northeast monsoon, which sweeps down from the plateaus of the snowy region of Asia and the Himalayas, brings rain and cooler weather to the Philippines from October to February.
Pagasa said that the northeast monsoon normally peaks during the months of January and February.
The weather bureau said it is expecting a long dry summer this year due to the prevailing El Niño.
Cruz had warned of the possibility of temperatures rising and staying at 36 degrees Celsius over several days during the summer season.
El Niño is the unusual warming of ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific and is characterized by below normal rainfall.
Most parts of Luzon have been experiencing a dry spell the past several months due to El Niño, Pagasa said.
An official of the Department of Agriculture said that at least 23 provinces would be hard hit by El Niño in the coming months.
Undersecretary Bernie Fondevilla told reporters during a news forum at Hotel Rembrandt that the department and its attached agencies are carrying out various intervention measures that include optimizing water delivery to irrigation systems and deploying mobile animal diagnostic laboratories to mitigate the impact of the long dry season.
Fondevilla said the dry spell is expected to wreak havoc on the agricultural sector in the provinces of Ilocos Sur, Ilocos Norte, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan, Aurora, Bataan, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Tarlac, Zambales, Cavite Rizal, Occidental Mindoro, Palawan, Capiz, Iloilo, Negros Occidental, Misamis Oriental, Zamboanga City, Sarangani and South Cotabato.
Other areas in the country will be moderately affected by El Niño but it will still inflict damage on the agriculture sector.
“Total agricultural production losses would be from P8 billion to P9 billion in a mild (El Niño), while damage in a severe dry spell could reach up to P20 billion,” he said.
Based on studies, Fondevilla said that a total of 453,204 hectares of land planted with palay, 227,843 hectares of corn and 14,000 hectares in the fisheries sector are threatened under a prolonged El Niño.
He said that although Pagasa foresees the El Niño to be moderate, it predicted that the occurrence will last longer, probably until July. – Perseus Echeminada