SWS: 56% plan to vote ‘no,’ 42% ‘yes’ in Cha-cha plebiscite

Over half or 56 percent of Filipinos would vote "no" if a plebiscite to approve amendments to the Constitution were held now, according to an independent opinion poll conducted by Social Weather Stations (SWS).

On the other hand, 42 percent would vote "yes," while the rest are undecided or have no answer.

"The margin of the no-vote over the yes-vote being statistically significant, the negative side would be expected to prevail in an honest count," said SWS, which conducted the survey from March 8 to 14.

It said the survey results are "contrary to the administration’s claim that constitutional change is unstoppable."

Asked if the Commission on Elections (Comelec) "can be trusted to honestly count the votes of the people in a plebiscite to ratify a new Constitution," 30 percent of Filipinos agreed, 34 percent disagreed and 32 percent were undecided.

"The question regarding their vote in a plebiscite was the bottom line of a battery of items on constitutional amendments, from which the survey finds only two proposals favored by the public, namely: forming regional governments (41 percent calling it ‘good’ versus 20 percent ‘not good’) and lessening restrictions on foreign participation in the economy (35 percent in favor versus 25 percent opposed)," SWS said in a statement.

A proposal to cancel the 2007 mid-term elections and extend the terms of all elected officials to 2010 was rejected by 50 percent and accepted by 25 percent.

A proposal for the head of government to be elected by members of Congress instead of directly by the voters was disapproved of by 56 percent and approved by 20 percent.

A little over half or 55 percent rejected a proposal for President Arroyo to be allowed to become prime minister in a parliamentary form of government while only 18 were in favor.

A suggestion made by former President Fidel Ramos in January for Mrs. Arroyo to step down early next year to make way for parliamentary elections was favored by 50 percent and rejected by 24 percent.

The SWS said it found "very strong opposition to removing the present limit on the term of the chief executive."

Seventy-six percent said there should be a limit to the term of a prime minister. "As to what the limit should be, the median answer is five years, i.e., even less than the present limit of six years," the pollster said.

A proposal for former Presidents Corazon Aquino, Ramos and Joseph Estrada to be allowed to run for prime minister in a parliamentary government was rejected by 44 percent as opposed to 24 percent in favor.

A proposal to have only one chamber in a parliament, consisting of district representatives and party-list representatives, was rejected by 38 percent and accepted by 25 percent, "implying that most Filipinos would rather continue having a Senate," the SWS said.

"Public awareness of the proposals to amend the Constitution is very low," it added.

"Only 13 percent say they know at least the most important parts of the proposals made by the Constitutional Consultative Commission. Forty percent know only a little, and 46 percent don’t know anything, about the proposals."

Only 38 percent would like to vote for each individual proposal, whereas 59 percent prefer to cast only one vote, for an entire package of proposed constitutional amendments.

"It was at this point in the interview that respondents were asked if they would vote Yes or No to a whole package of proposals in a plebiscite," SWS said.

The survey interviewed 1,200 Filipinos nationwide. It has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.