Abalos: A narrow win of just over 1 M votes for either GMA, FPJ

The Commission on Elections (Comelec) predicted yesterday that either President Arroyo or actor Fernando Poe Jr. will win by a margin of no more than a million votes.

Comelec Chairman Benjamin Abalos expects a 75-percent voter turnout in the May 10 polls, possibly the highest turnout in recent years.

"We are aiming for at least 75 percent. That would be an improvement of about three or five percent," he said.

Abalos made the prediction over the weekend although the Comelec has yet to give a definite estimate on the number of registered voters.

The Comelec’s latest estimate indicates that the country has 42.8 million voters, with 32.1 million expected to cast their votes. The latest estimate represents an increase of five million voters in the past two years.

An earlier projection indicated there are 40 million voters, with 38 million expected to register.

Surveys show neither Mrs. Arroyo nor Poe leading by more than three percent, which translates to a winning margin of 963,000 votes.

The Comelec said that only 70 percent of voters cast their ballots in the 2001 senatorial elections. In the barangay elections the following year, only 26,519,260 or 70.3 percent of the then 37,724,463 registered voters trooped to the poll precincts.

Abalos said they are still in the process of cleansing the country’s certified voters’ list (CVL) although this was supposed to have been released three months ago.

Re-electionist Sen. Aquilino Pimentel warned that a "variation" of the dagdag-bawas or vote-shaving scheme — which he said was a factor in his loss in the 1995 senatorial elections — could be in the works with the Comelec’s continued failure to release the CVL.

The political parties are supposed to be given three months to scrutinize the CVL in order to determine if there are flying voters or errors in the list.

But Abalos brushed aside Pimentel’s allegations, saying the CVL can be accessed by politicians on the local level if they wish to do so.

The camps of Mrs. Arroyo and Poe have been courting the support of various sectors to secure their victory in the presidential election.

Makati-based businessmen recently aired their support for Mrs. Arroyo, while Poe’s popularity as a movie actor has earned him support from the poorer sectors of society.

Both Mrs. Arroyo and Poe have tried to woo the support of the Iglesia ni Cristo (INC) and the El Shaddai, two influential religious groups that may provide swing votes for either candidate.

Both the INC and the El Shaddai claim to have 10 million members who will vote for the candidate endorsed by their leaders. With three weeks to go before the May 10 elections, the two groups have yet to endorse a presidential candidate.

But at a recent El Shaddai prayer rally attended by Poe, there were several hints of support for him though there was no direct endorsement from the group’s leader, Bro. Mike Velarde.

Aside from several El Shaddai members wearing Poe’s campaign buttons and stickers, the group’s choir had sung a praise song with the refrain, "He is King, the Lord, the One," after the actor delivered his speech. Poe is also known as "da king" of Philippine movies.

‘More To Join GMA’

As this developed, leaders of the ruling Lakas-Christian Muslim Democrats (Lakas-CMD) party predicted that more political leaders will join Mrs. Arroyo’s camp and that there will be a backlash for her supporters who defected to Poe’s camp.

"While the opposition is dying to recruit supporters to cover up their huge losses, the administration is being swamped by new followers who now realize the growing strength of the President’s candidacy," Surigao del Sur Rep. Prospero Pichay said.

He said these new supporters came from the camps of Mrs. Arroyo’s rivals for the presidency — Poe, Sen. Panfilo Lacson and former education secretary Raul Roco.

Pichay said it is unlikely that administration supporters will jump ship now that recent developments point toward Mrs. Arroyo’s victory in the May polls.

Bacolod City Rep. Monico Puentevella, on the other hand, predicted that those of Mrs. Arroyo’s supporters who defected to Poe’s camp will suffer a backlash from their political blunder.

He cited the example of Negros Occidental Gov. Joseph Marañon and his brother Alfredo, a congressman, who defected to Poe’s camp last month after leading several congressmen belonging to the Nationalist People’s Coalition in endorsing Mrs. Arroyo in December last year.

"People are angry in Negros Occidental with the President doing everything for Negros and yet getting junked in return," Puentevella said. "Negrenses will show their vengeance on May 10. The President will win not only in Negros Occidental but in the entire western Visayas."