No regrets for supporting Iraq war — Arroyo

President Arroyo expressed no regrets yesterday about having enlisted the Philippines in the "coalition of the willing" that supported the United States-led war on Iraq, a decision which drastically pulled down her popularity ratings.

The President made this statement after the Social Weather Stations (SWS) officially released yesterday the results of its latest opinion survey done from March 10 to 25, showing she got a — 14 percent net approval rating.

"We have to take the blows for standing on principle. I have taken the blows often enough on many vital issues and I have no regret about my decisions," she said in her speech at the 35th graduation exercises of the Pamantasan ng Lungsod ng Maynila held yesterday at the Philippine International Convention Center.

She added, "I for one shall never allow populist pressure to deter me from my rightful and moral course."

While the poll has few direct political consequences for Mrs. Arroyo, who has vowed not to run in the May 2004 elections, it exposed a big gap between official and public opinion.

SWS said in a statement its face-to-face interviews with 1,200 people yielded a net satisfaction rating of minus 14 – the difference between the 34 percent happy and the 48 percent unhappy with the President. The uncommissioned survey had a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.

Mrs. Arroyo – whose administration is battling rebel violence, budget deficit problems, tax collection shortfalls and pervasive corruption — had a rating of plus six in a similar survey by the pollster in November last year.

"Since Filipinos do give much moral support to the US and to the global war on terrorism, their disagreement with the President’s decision to join the ‘coalition of the willing’ is explained by their widespread fear that a war would have harsh economic and security impacts," SWS said.

The survey found a near-unanimous 85 percent of Filipinos expecting a US war in Iraq to worsen the economy, and 76 percent expecting it to increase the danger of terrorist attacks on the Philippines.

"Apprehensions in March 2003 were even greater than in November, when 71 percent expressed economic fear and 72 percent expressed security fear. Thus, depending on whether their dire expectations materialize or not, the public’s assessment of the President’s performance, as of March 2003, may or may not be maintained," the SWS said.

The latest survey showed nine percent expecting a war to have no economic effect, and only six percent expecting it to be economically beneficial. In November, there were 20 percent expecting no economic change, and nine percent expecting a benefit.

The survey also showed 14 percent expecting a war not to change the danger of terrorist attacks on the country, and 10 percent expecting it to lessen the danger. Last November, there were 15 percent expecting no effect on terrorism, and 12 percent expecting it to decrease terrorism.

One bright spot for the President was the public backing for the government’s efforts to protect Filipinos working near the war zone.

She scored a net satisfaction of plus 31 in that area, up from zero in the last poll, possibly due to her trip to Kuwait in February to show her concern for the safety of overseas Filipino workers (OFWs).

Fifty-nine percent of respondents cited the US war in Iraq as a crucial factor in tilting their opinion of the President.

Statesman not politician

Administration lawmakers also expressed confidence that the President’s popularity ratings will go up "after she was proven right" in supporting the US.

"The President’s firm stance on the Iraq crisis revealed her as less of a politician and more of a statesman, and placed her in the ranks of world leaders who took the difficult, unpopular road and were vindicated by the outcome of the war," said Rep. Leovigildo Banaag (Lakas/NPC, Agusan del Sur).

He said the recent drop in the SWS rating of Mrs. Arroyo was "the price to pay for an unpopular, albeit accurate assessment of the Iraq issue."

Rep. Amado Espino (Lakas, Pangasinan) said the SWS poll was taken at the height of anti-war protests, and anxieties over the safety of OFWs, the exchange rate, the supply of oil and the prices of basic goods.

He said the fears were unfounded as he cited the President’s decisiveness on the issue of food and energy security, the peace negotiations, the capture of terrorists in Mindanao, and the prevention of the spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).

Other congressmen who believed Mrs. Arroyo’s ratings would go up were Reps. Prospero Pichay, Prospero Nograles, Robert "Ace" Barbers, and Willie Villarama.

"I have tracked a marked improvement in her performance as Chief Executive. This bodes well for our prospects in the coming months," Villarama said.

Nograles said that the Philippines’ inclusion in the coalition of the willing would open up opportunities for our workers and businessmen once the rehabilitation of Iraq takes place.

Barbers said the foreign affairs department is confident that a new, democratic Iraq would stabilize the Middle East and spur new growth in the world economy.

Pichay, for his part, said the rescue of the last Indonesian captive of the bandit group Abu Sayyaf augurs well for an improved peace and order situation in the country.

A Palace insider told The STAR yesterday the "internal" surveys showed a "spike" of the President’s popularity rating based on opinion polls taken the past four days since the US-led coalition forces occupied major cities in Iraq.

Apparently buoyed by the reported recovery of her approval rating, Mrs. Arroyo is prepared to cast her "political capital" anew on another yet unpopular decision — sending a 500-man Philippine humanitarian task force for the post-war reconstruction of Iraq, which some opposition bloc lawmakers criticized.