Sen. Joker Arroyo said yesterday that those who cannot be accommodated as candidates in the 2004 elections would get a second lease on their political life by running as delegates to the Con-con.
"That would mean 300 to 400 elective positions for delegates available for trade-off to aspirants who want but cannot be accommodated to run for city mayors, governors, congressmen and senators," Arroyo said in a statement.
"This would be the beginning of a highly politicized constitutional convention manned by second stringers," he added.
According to Arroyo, this is precisely the reason why there is a "mad frenzy" of proposals for Charter change (Cha-cha), even as surveys indicate a majority of Filipinos are against it.
He emphasized that amending the Constitution is a difficult legal process.
He explained the Constitution is so designed that even a small minority of either the Senate or the House can defeat any attempt for amendment or revision.
Arroyo said the proposal for both legislative chambers to convene into a constituent assembly to amend the Charter is a long shot.
"That (constituent assembly) requires a three-fourths vote in the Senate and in the House. That means that the vote of 18 senators is needed for it to prosper, a quite difficult matter because if just six senators should block it, the proposition is defeated," he said.
Arroyo said 60 congressmen can also succeed in defeating the proposal even before it gets to the Senate.
A Con-con, however, requires two-thirds vote, with 16 senators voting for the affirmative. "Just as difficult because that means eight senators can block it. Or 80 congressmen can block it too," Arroyo said.
The remaining option of people’s initiative is also a likely failure, he said.
Under the process of people’s initiative, amendment of any part or the whole of the Constitution requires a petition of 12 percent of the total number of registered voters nationwide.
Each legislative district should deliver at least three percent of its registered voters.
"Quite a statistical improbability," Arroyo said. "If one or more districts out of the over two hundred legislative districts fail to muster the three percent, the process fails."
The former Makati City congressman pointed out the process was attempted during the Ramos administration but failed because of problems relating to the appropriate identification of the supposed petitioners.
A senior legislator, however, proposed that a referendum on Cha-cha, coinciding with the general elections in 2004, should be held.
In filing House Concurrent Resolution 17, Negros Oriental Rep. Herminio Teves also stressed the need for both Malacañang and Congress "to determine the genuine sentiments of our people before embarking on a costly and potentially divisive exercise to amend the Constitution."
"We are convinced the best option is for us to first call for a referendum that would give our people the chance to express their true sentiments on Charter change," he said.
Teves also said elections for Con-con delegates in May next year "may be premature and counterproductive."
President Arroyo earlier expressed her preference for a Con-con, with the election of delegates coinciding with the May 2004 elections.
Senate President Franklin Drilon said he will file a resolution formalizing the call for a Con-con and the election of its delegates next year.
Drilon expressed his confidence that the Con-con resolution would be readily approved by the Senate with only a simple majority needed to pass it.
Drilon said the mode of holding a Con-con is the only feasible way of amending the Charter. Mustering three-fourths vote in the Senate for a constituent assembly would be impossible, he said.
Sen. John Osmeña, a proponent of federalism, said he would prefer a Con-con rather than a constituent assembly.
Osmeña said he and Sen. Aquilino Pimentel Jr., also a proponent of federalism, will be campaigning for Con-con candidates in the Visayas and Mindanao who share their conviction on establishing a federal form of government.
Sen. Teresa Aquino-Oreta, on her part, however urged her colleagues to defer discussions on Cha-cha in the light of the declarations made by Mrs. Arroyo against amending the Constitution before the 2004 elections.