ARMM expansion headed for defeat

The local plebiscite on expanded Muslim self-rule appeared headed for defeat yesterday due mainly to the wary Christian majority in Mindanao and Palawan.

But while pessimism reigned in most of the 15 provinces and 14 cities where the plebiscite was held, hope emerged in the cities of Marawi and Cotabato which appeared to have voted to join the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM).

Some 4.9 million voters from 15 provinces and 14 cities were expected to vote in 27,000 precincts yesterday, but election officials said only about two million actually voted because of torrential rains and flooding, lack of knowledge on the issues and fear of violence.

"We cannot expect the turnout in a plebiscite to be as good as in a regular election because here there are no candidates vying for public office," said Commission on Elections (Comelec) Chairman Alfredo Benipayo.

"You cannot say that because of that (low turnout), the plebiscite is not valid," he added.

Despite the low voter turnout, both the Comelec and the poll watchdog National Citizens’ Movement for Free Elections (Namfrel) reported that the plebiscite was generally peaceful.

"While we anticipated all these pockets of disturbances and threats, we’re happy to note that there was no untoward incident," said Comelec Commissioner Resurrecion Borra.

Malacañang also expressed satisfaction with the plebiscite’s outcome, noting that the administration’s target of getting Marawi and Cotabato appeared to have been achieved.

"The most important thing is the manner by which it is undertaken, especially if there is no violence up to the end of the day," said presidential adviser on the peace process Eduardo Ermita.

There were no reports of poll-related violence, but the Comelec declared a failure of elections in some towns and villages due to bad weather, which prevented the delivery of election materials.

In Basilan, voting precincts in far-flung villages were transferred because of an ongoing military operation against Abu Sayyaf bandits holding about 20 hostages, including Americans.

In Sulu, voters in the capital town of Jolo were discouraged from casting their votes after a rumor of a "rebel attack" spread across town before dawn yesterday.

‘Why join ARMM?’

The Comelec expects the results of the plebiscite released within a week but voters and election officials reported that the general sentiment in the 15 provinces and 14 cities was to reject joining the ARMM.

"We will send out message through two letters: N-O," said a woman voter after casting her vote in Zamboanga City, a predominantly Christian city of 700,000 people.

In nearby Basilan island, unofficial results indicated the capital of Isabela City and the second largest town of Lamitan voted resoundingly against joining the ARMM.

South Cotabato Gov. Daisy Fuentes said she supports autonomy but this should not be imposed on peoples of different cultures.

"It should only cover people the majority of whom share identical values. If not, that’s where trouble could start," Fuentes said.

North Cotabato Gov. Emmanuel Piñol said he is expecting an overwhelming "no" vote in his province.

"We have to face it. Our people in North Cotabato do not want their local government units to be placed under the umbrella of an expanded autonomous government," Piñol said.

Perhaps, Zamzamin Ampatuan, executive director of the Office of Muslim Affairs, explained it best.

"Christians outside ARMM now see the reality obtaining in the autonomous region... What they are seeing are poverty and more conflicts. Naturally, their reaction is, ‘Who would want to be part of that?’," Ampatuan said.

Even the mostly Muslim provinces of Sultan Kudarat and Lanao del Norte appeared to be headed for a "no" vote, according to local officials.

Other Muslim voters said the ARMM has not made a difference in their lives since it was established in 1990.

"There is nothing really new," said government employee Nasruddin Samad of Maguindanao.

Hope shines in Marawi, Cotabato

But Marawi City residents appeared to be hopeful of the Arroyo administration’s pledge that ARMM would no longer suffer the budgetary problems it endured in the past.

According to Namfrel, voter turnout was between 70 and 95 percent. Most of the voters are expected to follow their leaders and vote for inclusion in the ARMM.

Lanao del Sur provincial election supervisor Lacs Dalidig reported the plebiscite went smoothly in all the province’s 36 towns.

In Cotabato City, the provisional seat of the ARMM, voters also appeared to be inclined to join the ARMM because of renewed confidence in the recently installed leadership of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF).

The MNLF recently ousted its founder and chairman Nur Misuari, the incumbent ARMM governor, for his alleged failure to deliver peace and development to Mindanao even after signing a peace agreement with the government five years ago.

Ranking MNLF leaders replaced Misuari, who had earlier sought to have the plebiscite and its subsequent gubernatorial elections postponed, with a 15-member council which had campaigned for Cotabato’s inclusion in the ARMM.

Cotabato City is also led by Mayor Muslimin Sema, a former MNLF commander who was also named chairman of the Southern Philippines Council for Peace and Development (SPCPD), which also used to be headed by Misuari.

According to Sema, all the members of the MLNF’s Council of 15, including former MNLF commander now Sulu Gov. Yusoph Jikiri, are pushing for the inclusion of their jurisdictions in the ARMM.

The MNLF Council of 15 was also behind the "solidarity pact" that was signed in Putrajaya, Malaysia last week with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), a group that broke away from the MNLF in the 1970s.

Sema said the new spirit of cooperation between the MNLF and the MILF as well as the looming peace talks with the government would help in finally forging peace in Mindanao. – With reports from Sandy Araneta, Marichu Villanueva, Roel Pareño, Lino de la Cruz, Edith Regalado, Nestor Etolle, Jaime Laude