In a press conference last night following a review of the Philippine economy’s performance for this year, the IMF chief of mission Markus Rodlauer admitted that the economic outlook for 2001 is "highly uncertain" and would depend on domestic as well as external factors.
According to Rodlauer, the IMF expects growth to be slow in the first half of the year, "dampened by the turbulence of recent months and slower growth of foreign demand."
He said that the "extent of the slowdown would depend on how fast the political situation is resolved and a strong macro framework and structural reform program can be reestablished, as well as on the path of oil prices, growth in foreign trading partners, and investor sentiment toward emerging markets."
More specifically, Rodlauer said that the growth next year is expected to be between three percent and 3.5 percent. Inflation, he continued, "is expected to rise through early next year, and then taper off assuming the peso steadies and world oil prices decline moderately."