Economy hit 4.8% before crisis

The economy grew by a far stronger-than-expected 4.8 percent year on year in the third quarter, but its outlook now hinges on whether a political crisis that has hammered investor confidence can be quickly resolved.

Economic Planning Secretary Felipe Medalla said the economy would continue on this track until next year "as long as the people accept the ongoing impeachment process."

Boosted by unexpectedly strong performances from industry and manufacturing, coupled with robust agricultural production, the 4.8 percent growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) far exceeded market expectations of well under 4.0 percent.

The Gross National Product (GNP), which measures the aggregate of food and services produced within and outside the country, grew by 5.7 percent.

President Estrada said the latest set of figures disproves the economic gloom predicted by businessmen, and bolsters his conviction to remain in office.

"Our economy has not fallen. The government will continue with its operations and won’t be bothered by those trying to distract us. The economy is more important to us," the President said.

The figures released yesterday, however, captured only the economic fundamentals up to September, before the events that led to the impeachment of the President on corruption charges unfolded.

Many economists had feared that growth would slow in the third quarter due to negative political and economic factors.

Medalla said a 5.5 percent jump in agricultural production in the third quarter brought output back to levels before the severe El Niño drought in 1998.

The farm sector accounts for around 20 percent of the country’s economic output.

Medalla said growth in the fourth quarter of 3.4 percent was attainable, which would put the government’s target of at least four percent economic expansion this year within reach.

"If it were not for the recent events, I would be 99 percent sure we would get at least four percent" full-year growth, Medalla said, referring to the impeachment and fears that a prolonged crisis could badly damage the economy.

Medalla said if the impeachment process drags on well into next year, the fallout on the economy may be severe, with growth coming in as low as two percent in 2001. But a speedy resolution could allow the economy to grow around 3.5 percent, he said.

Either way, that would still make the Philippines the slowest growing economy in developing Asia next year, according to the latest forecasts from the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

Even in Indonesia, where separatist violence, pervasive corruption and massive corporate debt remain big obstacles to recovery, the ADB is forecasting growth of 5 percent in 2001.

With growth of only 3.3 percent forecast for next year by the ADB, the Philippines is at the bottom of the Asian growth league.

Manufacturing production up

The National Statistics Office (NSO) said yesterday production and sales in the manufacturing sector rose in September from their year-ago levels on strong seasonal demand.

The volume of production rose 15.5 percent in September on year, up from an 8.8 percent increase in August, while net sales rose 3.4 percent on year.

Increased demand for electrical machinery, garments, paper and petroleum contributed significantly to the performance of the manufacturing industry, the NSO said in a report based on a survey of manufacturers.

It said the increased production resulted from growing demand in both the domestic and export markets.

"Manufacturers appear to have built up inventories in expectation of the (Christmas) holiday sales as the increase in the volume of production surpassed the growth of the volume of net sales," the report said.

The value of production in September also expanded 25.4 percent from a year earlier, up from an 18.8 percent increase in August. The value of sales for September rose 16.2 percent from the same month last year, compared with August’s 28.5 percent increase.

The average capacity utilization rate among respondents to the NSO survey was 82.2 percent in September, unchanged from the same period last year.

The NSO survey was based on responses from 371 sample establishments. – With Marichu Villanueva