EV sales seen charging up 11% this year

MANILA, Philippines — Electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to continue gaining traction in the Philippines and outperform the overall automotive industry, with sales projected to grow by 11 percent this year amid high fuel costs, according to research and analysis firm BMI.

As part of efforts to support EV growth and adoption, the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) said the government would discuss whether the zero tariff for EVs should remain in place beyond 2028.

“We forecast EV sales in the Philippines to continue outperforming the wider vehicle market, supported by government incentives, higher fuel prices and growing model availability,” the Fitch Solutions unit said in a report.

BMI expects EV sales in the Philippines to increase by 11 percent to 32,776 units this year from 29,479 units last year.

BMI’s forecast covers sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and excludes non-plug-in hybrid vehicles.

It said that EV sales are projected to grow even as total vehicle sales are expected to decline by 8.7 percent to 423,750 units this year.

If the forecast materializes, EV penetration in the country would rise to 7.7 percent this year from 6.4 percent last year.

For next year, BMI expects EV sales to rise to 51,666 units, supported by stronger overall vehicle demand and availability of more models.

It said EV sales are expected to continue climbing to 65,432 units in 2028, rise further to 78,781 units in 2029, and reach 91,730 units in 2030.

The sales forecasts represent average annual growth of 29.3 percent over 2026 to 2030.

As EV sales increase, EV penetration is also expected to rise to 11.4 percent next year, 13.7 percent in 2028, 15.6 percent in 2029 and 17.3 percent in 2030.

Meanwhile, sales of internal combustion engine, or gas-powered vehicles, are likely to recover more slowly, rising to 438,106 units in 2030 from 390,974 units last year.

BMI said government incentives are expected to continue supporting EV growth by making these vehicles more affordable.

At present, EVs, including BEVs, PHEVs, HEVs and certain parts and components, can enter the Philippines at zero tariff until 2028.

Electric Vehicle Association of the Philippines vice president Carla Buencamino said last week the group wants the zero-tariff policy to remain in place until 2040 to support EV adoption and growth.

Trade Secretary Cristina Roque told reporters on the sidelines of the First Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Business and Investment Summit that the push to extend the EV zero tariff policy until 2040 would be discussed with other government agencies.

“We will discuss this with the economic team, and once we have feedback, we will do it,” she said.

BMI flagged potential changes to the current incentive framework after 2028 and slower-than-expected charging network expansion as downside risks to its EV sales outlook.

“Both factors could reduce the pace of EV adoption by limiting affordability and weakening consumer confidence in transitioning to electric mobility,” it said.

On the other hand, it said that Chinese automakers’ expansion and falling battery costs would help accelerate EV adoption by making them affordable.

In particular, this would benefit the sports utility vehicle and crossover segments where price remains a key consideration for consumers.

“Faster investment from both the public and private sectors in charging infrastructure would also improve the practicality of BEV ownership, allowing BEVs to capture a larger share of electrified vehicle demand than we currently expect,” BMI said.