But this year, there are three rides who can really win although some of you might disagree to my choices. Here are my top 3 in order of finish:
1. Alejandro Valverde, Spain (Caisse d'Epargne). Who's he? You may not have heard of this Spanish rider but I can assure you that you'll get to know him better in 3 weeks.
This is the only rider to beat Lance (Lance gave Ivan Basso that win in 04) in a mountain finish in the past 7 years. He's a climber who can sprint and a sprinter who can climb.
Two months ago, this classy rider won two classics. This 26 yo's downside is his time-trialing and his inexperience. His team is well experienced in the TdF as it's the same people who helped Miguel Indurain win 5 TdF's I a row. I know this is crazy but I think he'll win it all!
2. Ivan Basso Italy (CSC). The best climber in the peloton today and the "Annointed One".
Although his TT has improved a lot, it's still shaky against the established time trialers. He has to drop Jan Ullrich in the mountains and gain at least 5 minutes to have a safe buffer for the long TT's (115km total).
Some observers believe that doing the Giro d'Italia (he won it by 9 minutes last May) and the TdF in one year is too much so we'll see if he has recuperated well. He has the strongest team and the smartest team director in Bjarne Riis to back him up so I put him above Jan Ullrich.
3. Jan Ullrich, Germany (T-Mobile).
This year could be "Der Kaiser's" best chance to win the TdF after so many second places and a third and a fourth. He is notoriously known as someone who can't keep off his fingers in the cookie jar.
He started this year with a knee injury but things seemed to be in the upswing last May when he won the 39km ITT over Basso by 27 seconds in the Giro when he wasn't in top form. Although he won the Tour de Suisse last week with a powerful ITT, he could not go with the attacks in the mountains.
The long TT this year favors Ullrich.
4. Floyd Landis, US (Phonak). This former domestique of Lance Armstrong has for me the best chance of all the outsiders to win. His TT is just a shade under Ullrich and he favors steady speeds on the climbs like Ullrich.
5. Alexander Vinokourov, Kazakhstan (Astana-Wurth). A relentless attacking rider, "Vino" is an exciting rider to watch.
But based on the previous TdF, he is inconsistent. He can put 5 minutes on his rival one day and gave back 10 minutes the next day.
His team is in a middle of the biggest doping investigation since 1998. To say that this won't have an effect on his performance is baloney.
6. Levi Leipheimmer, US (Gerolsteiner) a consistent rider who placed 6th last year, he's just not in the same level as the Valverde's, the Basso's and the Ullrich's.
But unless he is allowed to go in a break, which is unlikely, 6th will be his highest finish ever. The fact that he shares leadership duties with Georgi Totchnig is also another negative.
7. Cadel Evans, Australia (DOMO). This ex-MTB can TT and climb well but he doesn't have a dedicated team. Half of it is for sprinter Robbie McEwen, a sure stage winner.
2-time Giro winner Paolo Salvodelli, Yaroslav Popovych and Geroge Hincapie will lead a 3-pronged attacked from Discovery Channel. Popovych has a better chance of the trio since Salvodelli is tired from the Giro while Hincapie just doesn't have it to win the race.
No matter how team director Johoan Bruyneel puts a spin on it, this team is like the 1994-95 Chicago Bulls- just not good enough without Michael Jordan, er, Lance. Maybe in a year or two...
As for the host nation, they have a better chance of winning the World Cup or Wimbledon than having a top 3 TdF finisher in the next 10 years. That's how bad they are.