Power woes to continue until 2028: ‘No quick fixes’

CEBU, Philippines — Cebu may continue to face power supply constraints for more than a year as major new generating facilities are not expected to come online until 2028, leaving the province dependent on temporary measures to prevent further brownouts.

Department of Energy (DOE) Secretary Sharon Garin acknowledged the delay in long-term solutions during the Cebu Energy Summit on Monday, October 12, saying the Visayas must bridge the gap between its current electricity supply and growing demand while awaiting additional generation capacity.

“Parating yung solusyon, pero late na siya. It will be in 2028,” Garin said.

The DOE is pursuing battery energy storage systems, power barges and the restoration of generating plants to stabilize the Visayas grid. However, the planned power barges are not expected to arrive until the first quarter of 2027.

Garin said the government was working to prevent blackouts during the Christmas season but could not guarantee uninterrupted electricity amid supply constraints and the risk of generating units going offline.

“We're working hard na, na, mag, walang blackout sa Christmas, ‘no? And that's our commitment actually,” she said.

Bridging the gap

Garin presented the DOE’s power supply projections for the Visayas from the fourth quarter of 2026 through the end of 2028, including scenarios with and without additional power barges.

She said the government was pursuing immediate, medium-term and long-term interventions, noting that developing new power plants takes years.

One immediate measure is the installation of battery energy storage systems (BESS) with a combined capacity of about 250 megawatts across Cebu, Bohol, Leyte and Iloilo.

The batteries are intended to store excess electricity generated during periods of high renewable energy production and release it when supply falls short, particularly at night when solar power is unavailable.

Garin urged the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) to expedite the battery projects.

“We need the batteries now. People cannot wait,” she said, noting that discussions on the projects had been ongoing for months.

Another intervention is the planned deployment of power barges with a combined capacity of nearly 300 megawatts across the Visayas. The diesel-powered floating plants are intended to provide temporary support for three to five years while permanent generating facilities are developed.

The DOE is targeting their delivery by the first quarter of 2027, subject to logistics, contracts, environmental clearances and local government permits.

Garin cautioned that the barges would not eliminate all red alerts but could help contain supply shortages, particularly during El Niño and the summer months.

She also called for an assessment of the transmission link between Luzon, Leyte and Cebu, saying the existing Leyte-to-Cebu connection limits the additional electricity that can be delivered to the province.

Cebu's power deficit

NGCP officials said Cebu’s electricity supply remained insufficient to meet demand.

Engr. Neil Martin Modina, NGCP assistant vice president and head of Visayas System Operations, reported that Cebu had a generation capacity of about 863 megawatts against demand of around 1,229 megawatts.

This left a deficit of approximately 366 megawatts that had to be sourced from outside the province.

“Yun talaga ma'am ang kulang, yung nag brownout tayo,” Modina said, referring to the shortage aggravated by generating units forced out of service or operating below capacity.

He said the return of TVI units on Sept. 15 and 28 and KEPCO on Sept. 29 had helped improve the situation. One CPSC unit, however, remained under scheduled maintenance for 29 days.

The restoration of generating units helped prevent further rotational brownouts, with the last such interruption recorded on Sept. 23, according to Modina’s presentation.

Cebu continued to rely on electricity imports, including 445 megawatts sourced from Mindanao on the day before the summit.

Modina said KEPCO’s return could raise Cebu’s generation capacity to about 963 megawatts. Demand, however, would still exceed local supply by nearly 400 megawatts.

“Yun ang kailangan talaga natin sa Cebu, baseload,” he said, emphasizing the need for steady generation capacity to reduce the province’s dependence on electricity imports.

He also warned that the Visayas had an operating reserve of only about 270 megawatts. The loss of a major generating unit could sharply reduce the reserve margin and put the region at risk of returning to yellow alerts.

Earlier, Ermelindo Bugaoisan Jr., NGCP head of Systems and Standards Division, said electricity demand in the Visayas had increased by 106% from 2009 to 2026, while generation supply had grown by about 130%.

Despite the increase in generation, Bugaoisan said the region had been losing 22.44% of its available generation capacity during normal daily operations because of plant limitations, maintenance and forced outages.

For 2027, NGCP projected a need for 1,282 megawatts of additional capacity without capacity-sharing arrangements. The requirement would fall to at least 634 megawatts if capacity sharing were implemented.

Bugaoisan clarified that available transmission capacity could not always be fully utilized because the grid must retain sufficient contingency support to withstand the loss of a transmission line without compromising the system.

New plants eyed

Garin said the Visayas’ power shortage was not new, pointing to insufficient baseload generation to provide steady electricity when renewable energy output fluctuates.

Solar power can produce excess electricity during the day but cannot meet nighttime demand on its own, while wind generation remains limited in the region, she said.

To address the gap, the DOE is pursuing natural gas-fired power plants that can adjust generation to fluctuations in renewable energy output.

Garin said the agency plans to auction 500 megawatts of gas-fired capacity for Cebu and another 500 megawatts for Panay, with the earliest delivery expected between 2028 and 2030.

For baseload supply, she cited a planned 150-megawatt coal-fired power plant by TVI in Cebu, targeted for 2028, and another 107-megawatt facility expected in 2029.

She also cited around 470 megawatts of renewable energy projects, including those being developed by ACCIONA, that could come online in 2028 if developers meet their timelines.

Garin said the government was also considering modern clean-coal technology for new projects allowed under exceptions to the coal moratorium, subject to emissions requirements and the country’s transition to clean energy.

The planned facilities are expected to address longer-term supply needs, but their timelines mean Cebu must still manage the risk of shortages in 2026 and 2027.

El Niño could tighten supply

The anticipated effects of Super El Niño could further strain electricity supply by reducing renewable energy generation while increasing demand during hotter weather.

Garin warned that the weather phenomenon could reduce hydroelectric generation by 40% and solar generation by 20%.

“We do expect an increase in price and reduction on supply,” she said, explaining that the government must balance the need for additional electricity against the risk of higher power costs for consumers.

She urged households and businesses to conserve electricity by switching off unnecessary lights, unplugging unused appliances and setting air-conditioners to 24 degrees Celsius.

According to Garin, setting air-conditioners at 24 degrees instead of 18 degrees could save about 15% on electricity bills.

She said reducing electricity demand by 10% to 20% could ease pressure on the Visayas grid and potentially minimize yellow and red alerts.

“Kung hindi niyo po kailangan i-on yung ilaw, huwag niyo nang i-on. At kung hindi niyo kailangan, i-off niyo,” she said.

Garin also acknowledged the grid’s vulnerability to simultaneous power plant outages and stressed the need to improve maintenance practices and technical capacity in the energy sector.

“I can't give you 100%, but just 100% effort on us na, to make sure that this won't happen again,” she said when asked about the Christmas power outlook.

Baricuatro seeks clear commitments

Cebu Gov. Pamela Baricuatro said the summit aimed to help stakeholders understand the province’s power situation, examine proposed solutions and identify joint measures to improve reliability.

She stressed that power interruptions affect not only households but also businesses, hospitals and other essential services.

“Everyday brownout means lost income for small businesses, disrupted work or another difficult night for a family,” Baricuatro said.

She added that reliable electricity was necessary to support Cebu’s economic growth, create jobs, strengthen businesses, improve health care and sustain tourism.

Baricuatro said the province must prepare for rising energy demand as Cebu continues to develop while ensuring residents can raise concerns directly with the institutions responsible for power generation and transmission.

“I hope today's discussion will help us understand what is being done, what challenges remains and when improvement can be expected,” she said.

She called on stakeholders to agree on concrete actions and realistic timelines extending beyond the summit.

During the gathering, government agencies, energy companies and business groups joined forces under a new alliance intended to strengthen Cebu’s power security and provide a venue for sustained discussions on energy concerns.

The Cebu Energy Alliance was formalized through a signing involving Garin and Baricuatro. — (FREEMAN)