Research gives sober view of multimedia messaging

Multimedia Messaging Service (MMS) is not going to match the hype that accompanies its launch, and will not be as widely accepted as Short Messaging Service (SMS).

This is the sobering message delivered by the Wireless World Forum (W2F) in its research titled Multimedia Messaging 2002: The Big Picture.

The W2F report is the first to puncture the MMS analysts’ bubble. W2F believes that the upgraded functionality of color, audio and graphics is not going to see a complete migration of users from SMS to MMS.

The research is based on interviews with key executives within W2F’s 3,000-strong wireless industry executive membership, and intensive statistical research.

The research shows that mobile phone users perceive SMS to be cheaper and easier to use than voice. The messaging market, accounting for 88 percent of all usage, is the youth market. However, the initial costs of MMS phones are priced out of the youth age group, slowing down the initial usage of MMS.

The research adds that MMS has different drivers than SMS. It creates more of an entertainment medium rather than the purer communication role of text messaging.

W2F believes that MMS will only take a small market share of the SMS market and will not be a direct substitute.

The research highlights a mismatch between the industry push and user demand of MMS. W2F says that wild industry predictions stating market values in excess of $50 billion per annum only serve to damage the potential success of MMS.

The research further predicts that MMS will be worth $5.8 billion by 2006, a figure less than 20 percent of today’s analyst predictions.

MMS growth in areas such as photo and peer-to-peer messaging will account for just under 700 million messages each per month by 2006. The largest markets, in terms of messages sent per month in 2006, will be the United States (726.8 million), Germany (324 million) and United Kingdom (258.4 million).

An important thing to consider in the Philippines is that, according to W2F, the adoption of MMS will be slow until the majority of prepaid phones become MMS-enabled. In the Philippines, more than 80 percent of cellphones use prepaid accounts.

The early adopter category of 20 to 34 year olds will represent a large proportion of the initial users. However, by 2006, 15 to 19 year olds will constitute the bulk of the MMS base in the larger markets.

The research adds that unless there is a better understanding of consumer lifestyle needs and how they adopt technology, MMS will not meet expectations.

W2F says MMS must have sober business models, and today this is not the case. Business strategies must consider pricing, consumer segmentation and marketing, greater cooperation, interoperability between devices, usability and partnerships with third-party content providers with clear revenue-sharing models.

W2F provides competitive market intelligence for the wireless industry through research data packaged in a convenient way for wireless executives to implement in their strategic decision-making processes.

Some of W2F’s clients include Deutsche Telekom, LG Electronics, Motorola, Nokia, Philips, Qualcomm, Samsung, Siemens, Sony Ericsson, Telstra and Vodafone. — Quadmedia News Agency