Cagayan most vulnerable to sea level rise - UPLB

MANILA, Philippines - Cagayan is the most vulnerable if the country’s sea level rises owing to climate change.

Cagayan, one of the country’s biggest provinces, forms part of the northeastern flank of Luzon whiplashed by the waters of the Pacific Ocean.

If the Philippine sea level rises by one meter when much of the world’s ice caps melt owing to global warming or climate change, 13,134 hectares of seashore lands in 16 Cagayan towns will go under water, states an analysis made by the University of the Philippines Los Baños (UPLB) Climate Change Program.

UPLB presented the results of its analysis at an exhibit in the just-concluded observance of National Science and Technology Week (NSTW) 2009 in Los Baños sponsored by the Los Baños Science Community (LBSC) held at the historic UPLB Baker Hall.

Palawan ranks second to Cagayan as most vulnerable, with 9,146 ha in 17 towns to submerge following a one-meter sea level rise.

Third is Iloilo with 8,647 ha in 16 towns; followed by Zamboanga Sibugay, 8,330 ha in 12 towns; and Camarines Sur, 8,139 ha in 27 towns.

Completing the list of 10 provinces that will be most adversely affected by a one-meter sea level rise are Negros Occidental, 7,870 ha in 25 towns; Capiz, 7.094 ha in seven towns; Bohol, 5,985 ha in 24 towns; Tawi-Tawi, 5,987 ha in eight towns; and Sulu, 5,728 ha in 19 towns.

On the whole, 167,290 ha in 171 towns in the top 10 provinces will be most adversely affected by a one-meter sea rise.

Cagayan also is the most vulnerable in case the country’s sea level rises to two meters as a consequence of climate change; 22,746 ha in 19 towns, submerged.

Camarines Sur comes second with 17,039 ha in 28 towns inundated.

The Bicol province is followed by Palawan, 13,609 ha in 19 towns; Negros Occidental, 10,368 ha in 13 towns; Iloilo, 10,709 ha in 19 towns; Negros Occidental, 10,368 ha in 25 towns; Capiz, 9,738 ha in seven towns; Bohol, 9,509 ha in 27 towns; Northern Samar, 8,654 ha in 21 towns; and Zamboanga del Sur, 8,349 ha in 14 towns.

A total of 264,447 ha in 180 towns will be submerged in case the country’s sea level rises by two meters owing to climate change.

In the face of such an eventuality, a comprehensive land use and development plan are needed for the provinces most vulnerable to sea level rise, the UPLB Climate Change Program stressed.   – Rudy A. Fernandez