Sideways trading expected this week

MANILA, Philippines — The local stock market is expected to trade sideways this shortened trading week, with upcoming third quarter corporate earnings results hopefully giving it a much-needed boost ahead of the release of October inflation data.

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) finished below the 5,700 level last Friday at 5,680.35, down by 0.84 percent week-on-week.

First Metro Investment Corp. head of research Cristina Ulang said the market is expected to stay on high volatility mode ahead of the October inflation and ongoing third quarter 2026 earnings season.

Ulang sees the PSEi remaining trapped within the 5,600 to 5,800 range this week.

“We expect trading to remain cautious amid elevated borrowing costs, inflation concerns and persistent oil price pressures,” Unicapital Securities head of research Wendy Estacio-Cruz said.

Estacio-Cruz said investors would monitor the  October inflation data on Nov. 5 for cues on the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)’s policy outlook, foreign fund flows and the peso’s direction.

AB Capital Securities, for its part, said more third quarter results and the Nov. 9 gross domestic product print would serve as the next near-term catalysts.

“Market is vulnerable if participation stays thin. 5,580 still major support and real test of underlying demand,” it said.

With most listed firms reporting over the next two weeks, 2TradeAsia.com, meanwhile, cautioned that the forward commentary will matter more than the third quarter prints.

“Funding costs are up 125 basis points since April and the peso is near record lows, so we expect capex plans for 2027 to be trimmed or pushed out, most visibly among property developers and conglomerates with heavy pipelines,” the online brokerage said.

“That defers stress on balance sheets but is effectively a demand downgrade, and it passes straight through to cement and construction suppliers,” it said.

2TradeAsia.com said currency movements in view of geopolitical headlines in the Middle East are also among the key risks to monitor this week.

“We would treat a break below 5,600 as a signal to cut exposure further and would add only on a close above 5,800 that holds after the Fed decision is out,”  the online brokerage said.

“Our outlook is a possible double-tightening with the fed rate hike coming in the 9th of December, followed by a rate hike by the BSP in the 17th of the same month,” it said.

There will be no trading today in observance of All Souls’ Day.