Palay output drops to 6-year low in Q1

MANILA, Philippines — The country’s production of palay or unhusked rice dropped to a six-year low in the first quarter of 2026 as low farmgate prices discouraged farmers from planting.

Palay harvest from January to March declined to 4.4 million metric tons (MT), a 6.38-percent drop from 4.7 million MT logged in the same period last year, data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed.

The latest palay harvest is the lowest since 2020, when output was recorded at 4.2 million MT.

Palay production in irrigated land declined by 8.1 percent to 3.4 million MT in the first quarter, while rainfed palay dropped by seven percent to 967,234 MT.

The Department of Agriculture (DA) attributed the production slump on weak planting intentions as low farmgate prices of palay during the fourth quarter, where most of the first-quarter harvest were planted, discouraged farmers.

“Most likely this was because, coming to our previous season the price of palay went down, which had an effect on our farmers’ planting intentions,” DA Assistant Secretary and spokesperson Arnel de Mesa said.

The Federation of Free Farmers (FFF) said most of the production decline during the period was due to a reduction in planted hectares.

“During that time, palay prices were abnormally low and this could have discouraged farmers from planting. Notably, most of the output decline was due to a reduction in planted/harvested hectarage,” FFF national manager Raul Montemayor told The STAR.

Total palay harvest area in the first quarter reached 1.08 million hectares, down from last year’s 1.15 million hectares, based on PSA data.

Rice production is expected to decline this year as increased fertilizer prices weigh down farmers’ spending amid the ongoing Middle East conflict.

The DA projects total rice output to reach a 10-year low of 18.8 million MT by the end of the year, if fertilizer and fuel prices remain elevated.

De Mesa said that land preparations for the incoming planting season will start in May, but higher costs of fuel and fertilizers along with the looming El Niño are expected to weigh heavily on farm production.

State weather agency PAGASA has triggered an El Niño alert last week, forecasting a 70-percent likelihood of the weather event occurring in the coming months. The Philippines last experienced severe El Niño in 2024, which affected overall crop production.