Philippines coal demand seen growing 15% by 2030

MANILA, Philippines — Despite its energy transition efforts, the Philippines is projected to remain one of Southeast Asia’s largest coal consumers through 2030, according to the International Energy Agency. one of Southeast Asia’s largest coal consumers through 2030, according to the International Energy Agency.

The IEA forecasts the Philippines’ coal demand to rise by 15 percent to 54 million tons by 2030, keeping the country a regional top consumer alongside Indonesia and Vietnam.

Robust economic and population growth, along with a 27 percent rise in electricity demand, are expected to fuel the increase over the forecast period.

Coal consumption in the Philippines was forecast to have reached 47 million tons in 2025.

“While renewable deployment accelerates, coal-fired generation continues to provide baseload supply,” the IEA said in its annual coal report.

Coal still accounted for the bulk of the country’s power generation mix at around 63 percent, while renewable energy made up only 22 percent, latest Department of Energy data showed.

London-based energy think tank Ember earlier reported that the Philippines had the most coal-dependent grid in Southeast Asia, with coal’s share in power generation even surpassing that of Indonesia.

The Philippines relies heavily on imports for its coal-fired power, with around 98 percent of its total imported coal supply coming from Indonesia.

In terms of local output, the IEA said Consunji-led Semirara Mining and Power Corp. (SMPC) is expected to maintain coal production at around 15 million tons through 2030.

SMPC, the Philippines’ leading coal producer, currently accounts for around 99 percent of the domestic production.

Regionally, the IEA said the combined coal consumption of ASEAN countries was forecast to grow by four percent year-on-year, hitting 516 million tons in 2025.

Power generation remains the main driver, accounting for about 75 percent of total coal demand.

The region’s strong economic growth and the commissioning of new coal-fired power plants were said to have supported this expansion.

Looking ahead, coal demand in ASEAN countries is likely to heat up by about five percent annually, reaching close to 643 million tons by 2030.

“Indonesia is projected to account for over 56 percent of this growth, while Vietnam and the Philippines also see steady increases linked to power sector development,” the IEA said.