DA trims 2025 palay forecast anew

MANILA, Philippines — The government has dialed down its production outlook for palay in 2025, with the latest estimate now slightly below its earlier target as recent typhoons dampened projected fourth-quarter output.

In a statement yesterday, the Department of Agriculture (DA) said the country’s projected harvest has been trimmed between 19.61 million and 19.89 million metric tons, reflecting adjustments based on fresh field validations conducted after several storms affected key producing regions late in the year.

“Despite this, the forecasted output remains close to the 2023 all-time high of 20.06 million MT and exceeds the 2024 production of 19.09 million MT, signaling a strong rebound in the country’s rice output,” the DA said.

Earlier in September, the DA told lawmakers during one of its budget deliberations that palay production expectations had been revised to 20.09 million MT from 20.39 million MT.

Before that, an even earlier estimate had put it at 20.45 million MT.

Despite the downturn, the DA credited timely disaster response, strategic farm management and favorable storm timing for preventing widespread losses in major rice-producing provinces.

It added that farmer resilience and adaptive practices also helped sustain production despite adverse weather conditions.

For next year, Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. signaled a major shift in the government’s strategy, with lower import requirements expected in the first quarter of 2026.

The Philippines is set to lift its four-month import moratorium in early January, allowing the DA’s Bureau of Plant Industry to resume processing applications for certain rice varieties.

During the ban, limited imports were allowed to ensure supply while the government assessed local production.

Tiu Laurel also warned that some traditional exporters appear to be anticipating large-volume purchases next year and are positioning for higher price quotes.

He emphasized that the government will not allow foreign suppliers to exploit the country’s food-security mechanisms and encouraged private importers to diversify sources and engage partners that prioritize stable pricing and long-term cooperation.

The DA added that its revised import matrix will continue to protect farmgate prices and guard against predatory import practices.