A failing state?

When the late President Manuel Quezon said he preferred a government run like hell by Filipinos than a government run like heaven by the Americans, he didn’t have the prescience to know how we will all be today.

First of all, Americans are now running their government like hell, if the chaos going on in Washington DC is an indication. Secondly, even Quezon will probably be shocked at how our government is being run like hell right now.

The sad thing about us and the Americans today is that our democratic governments are being driven to fail. For one thing, our badly educated mass base lacks critical thinking and is easily swayed by political clowns. Then, the extreme poverty being suffered by the mass base amidst unimaginable riches of the elite produce dangerous threats to social and political stability.

At least the Americans had over 200 years of building their democratic institutions. Hopefully, that will protect their institutions from Trump and Musk.

In our case, our situation is more fragile. We have been playing around with democratic trappings for some 70 years. And as we saw when Marcos Sr. declared martial law, a stroke of the pen easily ended our constitutional freedoms.

Today, looking at the Duterte cult adoration and widespread social media misinformation, we are at risk of losing everything again unless enough Filipinos wake up and realize the threat. Extreme poverty, sorely inadequate education and social media misinformation are making the next few years dangerous.  A failing state is highly susceptible to be captivated by a strongman type, worse than Duterte ever was.

Successfully transporting Duterte to The Hague to face trial at the International Criminal Court reduced the imminence of our being a failed state. It showed that our government is able to implement the law despite a strong political backlash. The Duterte camp did all they could to keep him from the ICC but BBM was determined and was able to get the proper government institutions to do what they should.

Sending Duterte to The Hague is important. While it admits that our judicial system is not able to bring Duterte to justice, it delivers a strong message to future leaders that no one is above the law and that the culture of impunity we have in our country must end. If the Dutertes were successful in using our courts to avoid an ICC trial, we would have been that much closer to being a failed state.

Academics define a failing or failed state as one that is not able to enforce its laws uniformly or provide basic goods and services to its citizens. A state is seen as failing or has failed based on some characteristics like - the presence of an insurgency, extreme political corruption, overwhelming crime rates suggestive of an incapacitated police force, an impenetrable and ineffective bureaucracy, judicial ineffectiveness, military interference in politics and consolidation of power by regional actors such that it rivals or eliminates the influence of national authorities, e.g. local political dynasties.

We seem to have all the characteristics except for military interference in politics. We are not quite a failed state yet but maybe just fragile, exhibiting warnings of what is to come if our governance course remains unaltered. I asked ChatGPT and it mentioned a number of worrying characteristics that are flashing warning signs to us:

Political institutions are dysfunctional or corrupt; leaders struggle to enforce laws or provide services; inability to provide basic public services (health care and education); dependence on foreign aid or illicit economies (drug trade, smuggling); problems with inflation, unemployment and economic stagnation; lack of national identity or unity; poor health care leading to disease outbreaks; high mortality rates due to violence, malnutrition or lack of medical care; citizens flee to seek safety and better opportunities; educated professionals leave, etc.

The good news is, according to ChatGPT, the Philippines is not yet a failing or failed state, but it does exhibit some characteristics of a weak or fragile state. While the country has a functioning government, economy and institutions, it faces challenges that could weaken state capacity if left unaddressed.

But the Philippines must address challenges that weaken the state like:

Corruption and political dynasties – corruption at various levels of government undermines development and public trust;

Insurgencies and crime – armed groups like the New People’s Army (NPA) and terrorist organizations in Mindanao pose security threats;

Weak law enforcement and justice system – human rights concerns, extrajudicial killings and slow judicial processes weaken rule of law;

Economic inequality and poverty – despite economic growth, wealth is concentrated among a few and many Filipinos still live in poverty;

Vulnerability to natural disasters – typhoons, earthquakes and poor disaster response strain resources and displace communities.

ChatGPT concludes the Philippines is not a failing state, but if issues like corruption, inequality and security threats persist without effective governance, the risk of state weakening increases.

This is why it is important that enough Filipinos protest the larceny being perpetuated in Congress.

For the 2025 national budget of P6.326 trillion, the Philippine government must borrow P1.686 trillion, as only P4.64 trillion is expected to be covered by revenues. The World Bank has also confirmed that more than 20 percent of the national budget is lost due to corruption.

So, it seems that the amount the government is borrowing is about as much as we are losing to corruption. What we borrow and pay interest on goes to fund corruption.

That’s scandalous except that we are no longer scandalized by corruption as a people.

Unless we stop rampant corruption, we will be a failed state soon enough.

Boo Chanco’s email address is bchanco@gmail.com. Follow him on X @boochanco