Sign of progress

A colleague, Joe, complained on Facebook that it took him three hours to drive from Pasig to Makati. Ho hum! Nothing new. It once took my Singaporean daughter-in-law more than three hours to get to our place in Pasig from Terminal 3. That’s also about how long it took to fly from Singapore’s Changi Airport to NAIA T3.

I recall that Mar Roxas once called our traffic jams a sign of progress. Interestingly, Leni Robredo, Mar’s running mate at the time said, “I don’t think that’s correct. Yes, there’s progress but that’s no reason for traffic. More progressive countries have less traffic.” Leni went on to admit that the Aquino administration failed to address the problems in our mass transport system.

But Mar may be onto something. According to BMI, a unit of Fitch Ratings, robust economic growth made them revise upward their 2024 vehicle sales forecast for the Philippines to an 8.5-percent increase, reaching approximately 466,500 units. BMI noted higher-than-expected vehicle demand year-to-date.

Last February, BMI forecasted real Philippine GDP growth at 6.2 percent this year but downgraded it to six percent last month. “Most of the economic momentum will be domestically driven. Continued consumer resilience and a rebound in investment activity will support growth.”

Reduced borrowing costs will support the growth of the passenger car segment, as households respond favorably to lower financing rates, BMI predicts. For the commercial vehicle segment, BMI sees a growth of seven percent in 2024, reaching around 343,000 units, driven by strong growth in the construction and mining sectors.

That’s what the local vehicle distributors are saying too. Last week, they reported selling more than 39,000 vehicles in August alone. The joint report by the Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines Inc. and the Truck Manufacturers Association showed new motor vehicles sales for August 2024 at 39,155 units, 6.7 percent higher than August 2023. Year-to-date sales were recorded at 304,765 units (up by 10.3 percent year-on-year).

New car sales have been hovering close to half a million yearly for some time now. And very few of the old vehicles get scrapped. My own car is 20 years old and still running. So, we have an increasing number of vehicles year after year pouring into our streets. DPWH is hardly building new roads in NCR but even the elevated tollways built by the private sector get clogged at rush hours.

Very obviously, reducing the number of cars on the road is the logical first step in dealing with traffic gridlocks. Our feeble solution is “coding” which keeps 20 percent of all cars off the streets for one day a week based on the last number in the car plate. “Coding” made the problem worse because we ended up buying another car to replace the original “coded” car.

In Singapore, they restrict the sale of new cars by requiring a Certificate of Entitlement (COE) or the right to vehicle ownership for a period of 10 years after which the vehicle must be scrapped or another COE paid for an additional five or 10 years of usage. COEs are integral to the Vehicle Quota System, a landmark scheme to regulate the number of vehicles on the road and control traffic congestion.

Limited numbers of COEs are released twice a month in a bidding process. The price of a COE is determined by the demand for vehicles and the supply of COEs available. If more people want to buy cars than there are available COEs, the cost of a COE is high, sometimes more expensive than the car itself.

In Singapore and Stockholm, motorists must pay “congestion charges” to drive in city centers. Congestion charges are intended to reduce traffic within those areas at certain times of the day. Such a charge can be imposed for vehicles entering the Makati Commercial Center or BGC. But even the thought of imposing a congestion charge has brought about protests from motorists.

In Shanghai, only cars with Shanghai car plates can enter the metro area.

Barcelona uses smart technology, such as sensors and traffic control cameras to monitor and manage traffic in real time. This helps optimize traffic flow and reduce congestion. The MMDA some years ago tried something like this, investing in sensors embedded in some key intersections. But for reasons not explained to us, MMDA abandoned the plan after spending money on it.

Actually, we need a package of solutions, not just one solution. We need public transportation. We are only now trying to catch up. By the time these train systems start operating, they will be inadequate to handle the volume of passengers that must be moved around.

But despite the daily carmageddons, we are still not ready for real solutions that entail some pain and inconvenience. That’s why for our bureaucrats doing nothing is the most attractive option. That will make us reach a point when being stalled in traffic jams becomes politically unbearable.

The long-term solution is to depopulate NCR to the level that makes civilized existence possible. For now, the most painless way of reducing vehicular traffic and eliminating the pains of commuting is to allow more people to work from home. But the mall owners will protest again as they lose foot traffic. Office rentals already negatively affected by the POGO ban will slow down even more and landlords are politically influential.

There should be a ban on the construction of more office buildings in NCR and PEZA benefits should be limited to those in areas outside NCR. Property development should encourage those building in regions bordering NCR, mostly townships that include residences, workplaces and schools within biking distance.

Vested interests will protest again but something has to be done to produce the greatest amount of good for the greatest number of people. The alternative is losing billions a day and fuming while stuck in our traffic mess.

Boo Chanco’s email address is [email protected]. Follow him on X @boochanco.