Political crossroad for BBM?

By Oct. 1, our poor country’s main industry, politics, will shift to high gear. Candidates for the mid-term election will start filing their Certificates of Candidacies for the May 12 election next year.  At stake are all 318 seats in the House of Representatives and 12 of the 24 seats in the Senate. Local officials will also be elected at the same time.

BBM has barely warmed his seat and half of his term is over. Because his ill-conceived political partnership with Sara Duterte has collapsed, the mid-term election will be a test of strength between the Marcoses and the Dutertes.

BBM’s senatorial candidates must win by a landslide or BBM becomes a lame duck president in the second half of his term. His candidates must also win overwhelmingly in congressional districts if he is thinking of constitutional change to extend his rule via a change in the form of government.

BBM is barred by the 1987 Constitution from seeking reelection. As of now, he has no successor with enough political strength to successfully win a contest with Sara Duterte. His cousin, the Speaker, is aspiring to be that successor but surveys show he is too weak to beat Sara despite all the trying.

BBM’s sister Imee could have been an alternative except that she has cast her lot with the Dutertes and may run as Sara’s Vice President. She and BBM may not have spoken to each other for a while. Imee has supported the Duterte side on a number of key issues from the West Philippine Sea to Quiboloy to Sara’s budget.

BBM’s immediate big problem is putting together a formidable Senate ticket, to beat Duterte surrogates Bong Go and Bato dela Rosa. VP Sara said three Dutertes will run for the Senate and that’s deadly.

Topping the current list of senatorial hopefuls is another Tulfo. Then there are: Tito Sotto, Manny Pacquiao, Pia Cayetano, Ping Lacson, Abby Binay, Lito Lapid and another showbiz ‘has-been’ Willie Revillame. It is not clear whose ticket these hopefuls will choose.

The outcome of the Senate race will either pave the way for a Sara Duterte presidency or end the hold of the Dutertes on national politics for good.

Investors will be carefully watching. Local and foreign investors have shown confidence in BBM’s economic leadership. But they are worried about potential disruptions if it looks like another Duterte will be President for another six years.

China and the United States will also be closely watching because a strong Marcos showing means the foreign policy shift to Washington stays. On the other hand, China will be celebrating a potential Duterte return to power.

The break between Marcos and Duterte was inevitable. Their political partnership was wobbly from the start. Old man Duterte didn’t like BBM and said so, calling him a druggie.

BBM and the Duterte family don’t have much in common. BBM grew up in Malacañang and was comfortable with the trappings of power. The Dutertes were ill at ease in the presence of world leaders.

With the opposition Liberals obliterated from the political scene, the contest will be between BBM and Sara. The Speaker and Sara sparked the first political skirmish. Everything was downhill for the UniTeam from there. Eventually, Sara made a clean break by resigning her Cabinet portfolio at DepEd.

Teneo, a New York-based think tank, observed that “the enmity between the Marcos administration and Duterte family exceeds that of any presidential-vice presidential combination in decades and will likely get worse as the Philippines heads into the midterm election season.”

Teneo’s analysis noted that “the primary risk, as we had highlighted two years ago, was not that the alliance would split on differences in political status or policy, but in how long they could stay together given their divergent and ultimately incompatible goals of retaining power (in the case of the Marcoses) or regaining it (in the case of the Dutertes) in 2028.”

It didn’t take long for BBM to signal that he is not at home with many Duterte programs including the war on drugs. BBM also swung foreign policy strongly back to favor the United States. Former senator Leila de Lima, who Duterte imprisoned over trumped up charges involving the drug trade, was freed. Duterte-era decisions against Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Ressa and her news outlet Rappler were reversed.

Apollo Quiboloy, a close friend of the Dutertes, was arrested to face various criminal charges. DOJ sent signals that any request from the US government to extradite Quiboloy on similar charges of human trafficking, child abuse and money laundering may be considered.

The DOJ has also changed the official position on the International Criminal Court case against Duterte from no cooperation to studying “all legal options,” including returning to the Rome Statute, the 2002 treaty that established the court.

The Speaker and his allies in Congress slashed the budget request of Sara’s OVP by over a billion pesos after the VP refused to answer questions on how the funds will be used. Questions were also raised about how Sara had been using funds under her control.

The political strength of the Dutertes still seems formidable. What they have lost in Luzon and Visayas are more than amply covered by very strong support in Mindanao.

BBM will need the Leni forces to make a difference but that means he must have a very credible anti-corruption campaign and also return the assets the Supreme Court has declared to be ill-gotten. Sending Quiboloy to the US and Duterte to The Hague will win support from independents.

BBM must also be more decisive on fixing agriculture to tame food inflation, a gut issue. Healthcare is the other big concern BBM is losing because of PhilHealth’s incompetence. That’s also an issue successfully claimed by Sen. Bong Go with the Malasakit Centers.

Exciting days ahead.

Boo Chanco’s email address is [email protected]. Follow him on X @boochanco.