A continuing failure?

Because bringing power plants online from scratch takes at least five years, our current problems with low grid reserves resulting in yellow and red alerts can be blamed on a failure during the Duterte era. But the BBM DOE seems committed to continuing the failed policies.

Former energy secretary Alfonso Cusi wrote to my editors to claim he has accomplished much during his watch. But then, why are we having such serious problems now?

I noticed in his transition report that he passed on many things to the BBM administration, things he should have found time to do during his six years at DOE. These include addressing the uncontracted ancillary reserves of NGCP and reviewing the EPIRA… and that the DOE should “formulate the corresponding guidelines for the decommissioning of power plants whose operation already exceeded the prescribed economic life span…” These are long pending tasks he had on his desk on his first day. Addressing those over six years may have helped alleviate today’s problems.

As I have explained in a previous column and further discussed by Meralco chairman Manny V. Pangilinan, the need is simple: “What the country needs are conventional, dependable power plants so we don’t have this crazy situation now.”

These are coal and natural gas and geothermal to a lesser degree because there isn’t much new resource available. Hydro was knocked out by El Nino. The current DOE leadership is totally invested in VRE or variable renewable energy, essentially solar. That could be a cause for worry.

While the weather had really been extremely warm, DOE shouldn’t be blaming power supply inadequacies on it. Increased demand should have been assumed specially by folks who are conscious of climate change.

The current DOE should carefully manage our power supply and demand. Over dependence on VRE may make the next administration’s DOE blame the current one for problems should the VREs not perform as expected.

DOE Secretary Popo Lotilla said there is no reason to consider lifting the moratorium for new coal power plants because they are expecting 4,162 MW of power coming online this year. A review of their list of projects does not give us too much confidence we will be out of the woods soon.

Of the 4,162.98 MW new power projects going online this year, only 1,851.22 MW can be used for baseload: 450 MW of coal; 1,320 MW of natural gas; 81.22 MW of geothermal.

Most of the projects are RE: 2,883.22 MW. That’s broken down to 72.16 MW for mini hydro; 75.28 MW for biomass; 1,985.78 MW of solar and 160 MW of wind. Storage battery is 590 MW.

All the projects are set for commercial operations in the second half of this year. Mariveles coal 1 is set for July; Mariveles coal 2 for September; Mariveles coal 3 for October. All three plants are 150 MW each.

As for the three Batangas natgas at 440 MW each, the first and second are set for commercial operations in September and the third in October.

The geothermal plants with 29, 17 and 21 MW are set for June, September and December.

The majority are solar, with 13 projects by June, one in July, one in August and one in October and 12 projects in December. These are not very large projects. The largest is 264 MW in Mabalacat; 224 MW in Zambales; 100 MW in Cagayan; 90 MW in Pangasinan, etc.

Wind is just one project, 160 MW in Ilocos Norte due in June.

It is simplistic to say because there will be 4,000 MW of new power plant capacity this year, our problem is solved. Over half of the new power sources are VRE and there is a learning curve to consider since we are putting so much solar power on the grid for the first time. There are operational issues to be dealt with.

VRE sources, by definition, can only produce electricity when weather conditions are right. In contrast, conventional energy sources used to generate electricity are typically available when called upon. VRE generation specifically solar is only available during day time while wind farms output is dependent on the season.

Under the RE law, VRE is given priority and is “must-dispatch” in the electricity market. This means that during the daytime peak period when solar plants are producing, it displaces conventional power plants.

But it is difficult to rely on VRE considering the inherent uncertainties and intermittency of its output, hence the qualifier variable, as opposed to non-variable RE such as reservoir hydro, biomass, geothermal. The capacity factor for VRE such as wind and solar is also relatively low at 20-40 percent and 10-20 percent respectively. Conventional plants have a capacity factor of as much as 60 – 70 percent.

Moreover, in terms of managing the electricity output of VRE, sudden cloud cover or loss of wind will likely lead to a fluctuation in system frequency, requiring frequency support from non-variable energy sources. The entry of large VRE capacities in proportion to conventional, non-variable plants may lead to grid instability, poor power quality, voltage instability, and frequency fluctuation, among others.

With the large share of solar power in the grid, large capacity is lost once the sun sets. To resolve this, existing conventional plants must be retrofitted to adapt to the changes in VRE output, installing battery storage systems, etc. These solutions are necessary for more flexible generation capable of responding to variations in output.

Most importantly, there must be a more robust energy planning strategy. Generation planning should not merely focus on introducing capacities to meet demand, but must also consider maintaining an ideal generation mix, and development of capacities needed to support transmission operations.

Hopefully, these are being addressed now in preparation for the entry of all that VRE starting next month. With our track record, I wouldn’t bet on it.

Boo Chanco’s email address is [email protected]. Follow him on X @boochanco