The candidates for the next Philippine president

According to Comelec watchers, 97 persons filed their candidacy for the presidency of the Philippines for the 2022 elections.

Only five (to be discussed below) appear to be serious candidates for the position, which means that only five percent of those who filed their candidacy are sincere contenders.

The nuisance candidates. The Comelec has in its power to weed out candidates that are a nuisance to the election process. That any Filipino can run for president may have romantic appeal. It is, however, foolish to allow the process to become a joke on all of us.

A simple process that can weed out nuisance candidates is to require all contenders for high office to post a bond of sufficiently bothersome amount (perhaps P2 million for national positions, and P500,000 for high local office). The bond could be confiscated by the Comelec for those found to be nuisance candidates one or two months after the deadline for filing of candidacy. The Comelec can return the bonds to the legitimate candidates.

This reduces the burden of Comelec’s administration of the registration of candidates because the nuisance candidates will disappear.

The X-factor in the 2022 presidential race. The presidential election of 2016 was remarkable in that Rodrigo Duterte’s candidacy was substituted to replace a declared candidate at the last minute, when such substitution was allowed.

In alphabetical order, the following are the presidential candidates: Panfilo Lacson (incumbent senator), Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Isko Moreno (mayor of Manila), Manny Pacquiao (the senator and boxing hero), and Leni Robredo (incumbent Vice President).

For the post of vice president, there are only two major candidates with national prominence: Vicente Sotto (Lacson’s team mate and current Senate President) and Francisco Pangilinan (incumbent senator and team mate of Robredo). Willie Ong, the vice presidential mate of Isko Moreno, is a medical doctor and is relatively unknown, although a social media personality.

The X-factor in these candidacies are those of Sen. Bato de la Rosa for president, and Senator Bong Go for vice-president, who are allies of the administration. These two candidates appear to be “stand-ins” for the actual candidates who, for strategic or other reasons, are still not revealing their intentions.

The actual candidates could be Sara Duterte, the current mayor of Davao and the daughter of the President, and President Duterte himself, who withdrew from his plan to run for vice president, but who could change his mind.

If President Duterte is firm in his decision to quit politics, Sara the daughter has the option of running either as president, vice president or just as mayor of Davao, the candidacy that she had already filed for.

In the meantime, the registered presidential candidates will begin their campaign and try to shore up their electability. Before the Nov. 15 deadline is reached, some indication of who is gaining ground in their candidacies will become evident.

This will show how Isko Moreno, Panfilo Lacson, Leni Robredo, and Manny Pacquiao are performing against each other.  It will also reveal how Bongbong Marcos – who is a definite target of all the opposition candidates – survives the virulent political attacks on his candidacy.

All these new information might be important on how the X-factor takes shape before Nov. 15. The Duterte decision determines the final landscape of the 2022 presidential election.

Can the opposition candidates unite? Ambition, greed, and gravitas – words that contradict each other – will make it difficult for the opposition candidates to give in for “unity,” the plan being propagated by Leni Robredo. More than anything, each of the candidates (subjectively) hopes he/she can build the needed votes to come up on top in a tight election.

The period up to Nov. 15 will test who among them is amassing popularity and electability ahead of the others. Only if the administration is believed to be too strong to be defeated by all opposition candidates is it possible for a united opposition to exist.

If any opposition candidate begins to think that going it alone against the administration has a chance, the prospect of unifying the opposition becomes less likely.

Can the pro-government candidates unite? The prospects of a Marcos-Duterte or a Duterte-Marcos team up is possible. That team-up could involve either of the two Dutertes.

This will be dependent on the viability of a Bongbong Marcos candidacy as the Nov. 15 deadline approaches. The election surveys, which have shown strong public support for him relative to others, will provide some measure of this viability as the political attacks against his candidacy intensifies.

This will also determine how the Dutertes will make their final move. If Sara Duterte decides to run for president and if the Marcos candidacy remains strong, then the 2022 election will have many candidates fighting for a plurality vote to win.

But if the Marcos and Duterte political blocs unite, this could provoke the impossible to happen – a united opposition. Then, it will be almost like a two-party scenario to determine who the next president will be.

The X-factor in the 2022 presidential election at this point in time is still murky, but some of the possibilities are becoming more visible.

The economic stakes for the 2022 election. The pandemic has weakened the Philippine economy in many ways. Poverty has risen. Nutrition levels have fallen for the poor. Unemployment has worsened. The distance between rich and poor has widened.

Educational dislocation has affected a major part of the country’s school-age population. This has left a deep gash on the nation’s human capital development as a result. It is like we have been hit by a two-year war that reduced the population and also disrupted the nation’s public expenditures patterns.

The country’s recent economic resurgence was cut by the pandemic. The gains in economic fundamentals were neutralized, and economic recovery from it requires a program of specific reforms, most of which had been neglected in the past.

So, the stakes for the election of 2022 are very high for the nation. The next president will confront them.

For archives of previous Crossroads essays, go to: https://www.philstar.com/authors/1336383/gerardo-p-sicat. Visit this site for more information, feedback and commentary: http://econ.upd.edu.ph/gpsicat/