Economist sees slower rebound as vaccine rollout gets push back

MANILA, Philippines — The sluggish vaccine rollout in the country is unlikely to help the economy post a convincing recovery this year, while the spread of more contagious coronavirus variant likely to continue pushing back easing of restrictions.

While several analysts forecast this year's growth between 5-7% mainly due to low base effects, Bernardo Villegas, economist at University of Asia & the Pacific, is pessimistic, penciling in a 4% gross domestic product expansion this year.

For Villegas, the slow procurement of vaccines does not inspire confidence. "I am not optimistic in the short-run. Anywhere from the next 12 to 18 months... I'm disappointed at the very slow rollout of the vaccine," he said in a forum organized by the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry on Thursday.

"If you ask me, I think any significant rollout will be in the last quarter of this year. If not, the first quarter of 2022. And in the meantime there are more virulent varieties of COVID-19 and we are not that good in contact tracing," he added.

With vaccination yet to start as originally scheduled, Acting Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick Chua has renewed calls to relax existing restrictions as early as next month to hasten economic recovery. 

But some observers pointed out that any attempts to further reopen the economy would be futile without vaccinations taking place since that means consumers, whose represent 70% of the economy, are most likely to stay home for fear of catching the virus.

Earlier this week, presidential spokesperson Harry Roque said the Philippines had already secured all its needed jabs to achieve herd immunity, but none of those have yet to arrive. For this month, the government has set to vaccinate healthcare workers using initially vaccine donations.

The delays in vaccination, in turn, threaten the government’s ambitious recovery plan to grow the economy between 6.5-7.5% this year, following a historic 9.5% slump that shrank the size of the economy back to 2016 levels.

For UA&P's Villegas, the country is at risk of returning to tighter lockdowns due to the lack of  clear immunization plan in the face of more infectious coronavirus mutations. "Realistically, I expect more surges of more infectious and virulent varieties of the virus," he said.