Is there light ahead?

As this column is being written, we are waiting for the President to announce his decision on what to do with the Luzon-wide lockdown after April 30.

For a senior citizen like me with co-morbidities that make me a lethal target for the coronavirus, I am resigned to not being able to go out for a year or even more. Staying home is the only way I increase my chances of staying alive while doing my civic duty as well.

But I think it is time for us to devise a way of living with the virus around. A modified lockdown ought to be considered, although it may be a difficult decision for the President to make right now.

For instance, China did not allow Wuhan, Nanjing or other cities to reopen until intensive surveillance found zero new cases for 14 straight days, the virus’ incubation period. We are barely starting our massive surveillance or testing and new cases are still being reported daily.

Consider also that the UP scientists from various academic disciplines working together to help understand this crisis are worried that Metro Manila is on the brink of a coronavirus disease 2019 or COVID-19 outbreak due to the continued rise in the number of infections.

“Actually outbreak threshold already has been reached in Metro Manila due to the high number of cases of  COVID,” according to Prof. Mahar Lagmay who is coordinating the UP effort through the UP Resilience Institute.

Prof. Lagmay pointed out that data from the DOH showed Metro Manila accounted for 4,600 out of the 6,599 COVID-19 cases so far in the Philippines. The region had 289 deaths and 434 recoveries as of Tuesday.

It is interesting Prof Lagmay gave his briefing during an online press conference organized by Malacañang. They may be preparing the public’s mind for a lockdown extension in NCR.

Administration ally Rep. Joey Salceda, who had been correct from the start about lockdowns, is also saying that lifting the quarantine on April 30 as scheduled will do more harm than good.

“On May 1, you are proposing to unleash the 1.4 billion (social contacts) and be exposed to so many infecting individuals given the kind of testing we have conducted? In my view, that is not a good proposition,” he said.

Salceda called for three minimum health standards to be met before considering any easing: the elderly will be protected, proper social distancing and health measures will still be practiced, and there is enough testing, tracing and turnaround capacity.

The decision of Singapore to extend the “circuit breaker” (that’s how they call their lockdown) to end of June also makes it difficult for the President to consider easing ours now.

How can we ease when Singapore, with only 11 deaths so far, is maintaining a tight grip? They have a high number of cases only because they are doing a great job of testing, tracing and isolating.

The Singaporean Prime Minister explained that while their circuit breaker measures have been working, the number of unlinked cases has not come down, which suggests a “hidden reservoir” of cases in the community. The Singaporeans certainly leave no stone unturned.

Our President has been warned about the danger of a second wave of COVID-19 cases if he opts to relax or totally lift the quarantine. The President knows the infection figures are still high, but our resources to provide for those unable to work is also rather limited.

On a regional basis, the Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore account for 87.9 percent of COVID cases, according to data by Johns Hopkins University.

Several studies suggest that tens of thousands more infections may be undetected due to the low testing rate in countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines, both with large populations. 

DOH is still stonewalling on massive testing, insisting it is not a priority. DOH failed to procure enough test kits from the start. Sec. Duque can’t allow a new strategy that proves him wrong and possibly negligent.

But President Duterte has been convinced on the need for testing and has approved the procurement of 900,000 more test kits – in addition to 100,000 already in use.

Exasperated by the DOH failure, private companies are now preparing to buy their own test kits to help them monitor who among their workers are fit to return to work. Some LGUs are also eager to do their own tests and not wait for or depend on DOH.

Our government’s own modelling indicated that 75 percent of infections – or around 15,000 people – have not been detected. These virus carriers could be anywhere.

Still, the private business sector and some IATF members think it is possible to modify the Luzon-wide lockdown. Places with no COVID cases can be released from the lockdown.

According to the ABS-CBN News Investigative & Research Group, as of Tuesday, 26 out of our 81 provinces and 38 percent of our cities have zero COVID-19 cases.

Batanes, for instance, which instituted lockdown very early is COVID free. They are so careful so that when a DSWD team arrived in an air force plane to verify the list of Batanes residents entitled to assistance, they were kept at the tarmac. A table was placed under the hot sun for the DSWD staff to work on.

Lockdown should be lifted totally for Batanes provided they keep their islands isolated. There is no reason why schools cannot be resumed in the province.

Even in NCR, it might be possible to relax enough to allow for public transportation to bring workers to factories manufacturing or processing food products.

It might also be possible to revive some construction work. That is better than leaving stranded construction workers idle with no means of survival in construction sites.

In any revival of activities, social distancing and hygiene rules should apply.

Is there a happy medium between total lockdown and starting to reopen the economy? Not sure there is light ahead. We can only hope.

Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @boochanco