Next BSP decision to depend on coronavirus impact on economy, credit growth
MANILA, Philippines — With inflation no longer a headache for Philippine monetary authorities, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ next decision will likely depend on two things: speed of the economy’s recovery from the novel coronavirus outbreak and trajectory of credit growth.
At its first meeting in 2020, the BSP’s Monetary Board cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% — a move the central bank described as a “preemptive” action against risks to economic growth, including the novel coronavirus fallout.
Fitch Solutions said the viral outbreak poses risks to the domestic economy considering China’s contribution to the Philippines’ trade, tourism, foreign investment inflows and online casino industry. Softer demand due to the virus could also put some downward pressure on inflation.
While the economy is forecast to rebound this year, the impact from the SARS-like virus could prompt the Fitch unit to downgrade its growth projection on the Philippines for this year from its current estimate of 6.3%.
Benign price growth and external headwinds should prompt the BSP to cut rates again this year in a bid to stimulate credit growth and fuel the economy, the Fitch unit explained.
“Despite maintaining our growth and inflation forecasts, we believe that the risks to the downside posed by the viral outbreak will prompt the BSP to make another pre-emptive cut to the policy rate in H120, taking it to 3.50%,” Fitch Solutions said.
“The BSP has room to make further cuts,” it added.
BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno has said that he is looking at a 50-bp rate cut this year.
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