ANZ Research sees slower GDP growth in Q4 2018
MANILA, Philippines — The Philippine economy likely slowed down in the last three months of 2018 partly due to lackluster export growth, analysts at a global bank said Friday.
In a report sent to journalists, ANZ Research forecasts a 6 percent gross domestic product growth in the fourth quarter last year, softer than the three-year low 6.1 percent posted in the July-September period.
“Net exports likely remained a significant drag on growth, with imports (particularly capital goods) outstripping tepid exports. Investment activity remained robust and was a significant contributor to growth in the quarter,” the bank said.
“High frequency indicators are mixed; credit growth has weakened but auto sales have improved slightly. Along with weaker consumer sentiment, this does not bode well for private consumption,” it added.
For the full year, ANZ Research expects the economy to expand 6.2 percent in 2018, 6 percent in 2019 and 6.1 percent in 2020.
If realized, the global bank’s projections would fall below the government’s downwardly revised target of 6.5-6.9 percent for 2018 and 7-8 percent goal for 2019 and 2020.
The Philippine Statistics Authority is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2018 GDP data on January 24. — Ian Nicolas Cigaral
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