Political instability

For those of us who have lived here long enough, we are likely to just shrug off impeachment demands as mere political  “bodabil”. As they would put it in any barber shop, pakulo lang yan ng mga politikong kulang sa pansin.

The problem is, other people who are not as well versed about the nature of our politics are likely to be concerned, if not alarmed. After all, we have changed presidents twice via the extra-constitutional route. Impeachment is constitutional, but it is still an extraordinary move that cuts an elected official’s term of office. It will consume and divide us to the detriment of the economy.

Even before the impeachment demands were made, economic analysts who guide potential investors have already expressed concern about the stability of our political institutions. They are worried about what they call our “political risk.” They have been alarmed by the propensity of President Duterte to say dramatic things that seem to change established policy, only to be corrected by a Cabinet member the following day.

Indeed, Mr. Duterte’s communications team advised media not to take the President at his word and to be more creative in reporting his utterances. Mr. Duterte preceded Donald Trump by a few months and by now, reporters and opinion leaders know about the dangers of taking these presidents at their words.

But when it comes to money matters, the financial and business analysts working in banks, investment houses and credit rating agencies are understandably more cautious. We are talking big money being risked in a third world country called the Philippines, and there are basic conditions that must be met.

First of all, they are looking for stability of institutions. We could have a president who talks carelessly about matters that impinge on policy, but if there are functioning institutions to provide a check on him, then it is ok. Thus, in the US, the court system or the judiciary checked Donald Trump’s first executive order banning citizens from selected Muslim countries from entering the US.

Still in the US, the Republicans may be in total control of both houses of Congress, but it still functions well enough to publicly vet the Cabinet and Supreme Court appointments of Trump. Congressional committees are also able to summon the FBI chief to testify on the possible influence exerted by Russia to favor Trump during the last US elections.

Media, on the other hand, was able to force the resignation of the national security adviser by exposing his hidden ties with Russia.

We don’t have that system here. Our Senate may still claim a weakened ability to provide check and balance, but the House of Representatives is hopelessly captive. The independence of the Supreme Court is still under test with the De Lima case. And media is under constant threat from blind followers of the administration.

Angry statements from President Duterte threatening martial law suggest a preference for one man rule, not rule of law. Indeed, the 3,155 cases (based on the verified count of the investigative group of ABS-CBN News) of killings attributed to the war on drugs is causing concern to foreign investors.

After all, the killings are all too real. Even the President admits as much. He has even justified the killings. His justice secretary branded the victims as sub humans not worthy of life and their killings do not matter... a shocking pronouncement from the chief protector of the rule of law.

In September last year, Bloomberg reported that Standard & Poor’s or S&P, a credit rating agency, has warned of a credit rating downgrade over the conduct of the war on drugs. This may not seem like an economic or business concern, but the agency observed that the way the war on drugs is being undertaken “could undermine respect for the rule of law and human rights.”

The credit rating agency also expressed another concern: “Combined with the President’s policy pronouncements elsewhere on foreign policy and national security, we believe that the stability and predictability of policymaking had diminished somewhat. A higher rating is unlikely over our two- year ratings horizon.”

Indeed, the nervousness of investors is starting to show. The peso has dropped to a seven year low and the peso had been for a while, Asia’s worst-performing currency. Global funds have been divesting themselves of their Philippine stocks for some months now. After 14 years of being a net lender to the world, we now have a current account deficit.

It is in this context that the impeachment complaints against the President and the Vice President couldn’t have come at the worst possible time. While our politicians may just be playing their usual political games, the very fact that our top officials may be kicked out of office for no apparent good reason is being taken as a sign of political instability.

The President must be given time to carry out his programs. The Vice President has done no impeachable offense. What she has said in her message to a UN committee does not bring dishonor to the country. Indeed, it tells the world that there is effective opposition to the party in power.

The impeachment of Leni Robredo, if it progresses, will deliver the alternative message that the opposition is under siege and democracy is in grave danger. Yet, it could happen because impeachment is a political act. All you need is a compliant Congress.

The problem with our country is that we have too much politics. We have made it an industry. We have elected people who are power hungry and who think everything is justified in politics. They forget that of paramount importance is the good of the country... the common good.

President Duterte can be frustrating to some of us, but I have not given up on him. His single-minded focus is on the war on drugs, but he will in time see the connection of the drug problem with the country’s economic poverty. That’s why they are killing almost exclusively poor people. A war on poverty should not mean killing the poor.

He leaves economic matters to the very capable Finance Secretary Sonny Dominguez, but he must start to use his immense political capital to help Sonny get tax reforms through Congress. Analysts are banking on these tax reforms being passed. Failure to do so in the manner the reforms are currently framed may mean a ratings downgrade.

You and I may laugh at the suggestion that we are politically unstable. But the impression that we are unstable, a banana republic, could prove prophetic if it persists. It will damage our economy.

President Duterte must start using his political capital to get his congressional allies to behave and to address the urgent tasks at hand. All the silly diversions may be good for the next morning’s headlines, but will injure the national interest in the long run.

No one person can shame us in the eyes of the world, but our own leaders going against accepted norms of civilized behavior can. Patriotism demands we stop playing our political games and just focus on the enormous task of building our nation. That should keep us busy for a full presidential term.

Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @boochanco