Our fiesta islands

ANAHEIM, California – The fourth quarter 2015 Social Weather Survey, conducted from Dec. 5-8, 2015, found 92 percent of adult Filipinos are hopeful about the coming year. Only eight percent are fearful.

It was the same story last year which registered 93 percent entering the year 2015 with hope. SWS observed Filipinos have always been hopeful about the New Year.

It was 87 percent when SWS first surveyed it in 2000 and 88 percent in 2001. It reached a record-high 95 percent in 2002, and eased to 90 percent in 2003, 81 percent in 2004, and 85 percent in 2005. It ranged from 91- to 92 percent from 2006 to 2008, and fell to 89 percent in 2009. It recovered to 93 percent in 2010, and has since then been at 90s levels, reaching as high as 95 percent in 2011.

Germans, on the other hand, are hopeful too, but measured only in the 50s. In the December 2014 survey by the Allensbach Institute, Germany – where the survey question originated – 56 percent of Germans were hopeful for the year 2015. This was similar to 57 percent in 2013, and seven points above the 49 percent in both 2011 and 2012.

According to the SWS release, from 1991 to 2014, German hope in the coming new year ranged from a low 31 percent to a high 58 percent. The 56 percent score in 1991, 2010 and 2014 was the third highest since the German reunification in 1990, following the record-high 58 percent in 1994 and 57 percent in 2013. It has been at 50s levels in nine out of 25 surveys since 1991.

One would think the more economically well off Germans would register higher optimism or hope about the new year. But I am not surprised that despite all our problems, Filipinos tend to look the brighter side. It could be a coping mechanism. We have never allowed poverty to ruin our fiesta.

I wonder… if the survey was conducted in June rather than December or maybe during the typhoon season of July and August, if we will still get the same extremely hopeful response. Conducting such a survey in December, when our thoughts go to the fiestas and family reunions of the Christmas season, seem to guarantee a happy result.

Thus, it is not surprising that hope in the coming year is widespread in all areas. Despite the debilitating traffic jams that keep our blood pressure high in Metro Manila, hope in the coming year still rose by three points, from 91 percent in 2014 to 94 percent in 2015, the highest since 96 percent in 2011. It has been at 90s level since 2010 in the metro area.

But hope fell by three points in Mindanao, from 91 percent in 2014 to 88 percent in 2015. This is similar to 89 percent in 2010 and 87 percent in 2009. It also fell by three points in balance Luzon, from 96 percent in 2014 to 93 percent in 2015. It has been at high 90s levels since 2006.

It hardly changed in the Visayas, moving from 91 percent in 2014 to 90 percent in 2015. It has been at 90s levels in nine out of 10 surveys since 2006.

Across socio-economic classes, hope in the coming year fell slightly compared to last year except class E, moving from 87 percent in 2014 to 88 percent in 2015. However, it fell by three points in class D, or the masa, from 95 percent in 2014 to 92 percent in 2015. It has been above 90s in nine out of 10 surveys since 2006.

It fell by two points in class ABC, from 95 percent in 2014 to 93 percent in 2015. It has been above 90s levels since 2008, reaching as high as 100 percent in 2012.

I guess that is what celebrating the entry of the new year is all about – having hope. All those noisy firecrackers are as much to welcome the coming year as to send off the old year. With the new year, we get a fresh start. We forget the sad stories of the past year as we hope for a better year ahead.

Take the stock market for instance. It took record highs and disturbing lows last year. The PSEi Index was down to 6952.08 on Tuesday Dec. 29 as it closed the year. Looking back, Philippines PSEi Index lost 278.5 points or 3.85 percent during the last 12 months from 7,230.57 points in December of 2014.

Historically, the PSEi reached an all time high of 8127.48 in April of 2015. It was so good, P-Noy decided to ring the bell to mark the start of trading one day, and the downward slide happened a few days after.

But I have not met a stock market trader who thinks we are in for a prolonged bear market. Perhaps at the back of their minds they nurture that fear, but in public, we can only hear them tell us how great our country’s macroeconomic fundamentals are and how we are most likely to ride out any economic turbulence in our future.

We have other reasons for hope in the coming year. The presidential election is often cited as one. Those frustrated with the Aquino administration’s inability to address efficiency issues in governance are counting the days to a new administration.

The harassed MRT and LRT commuters are particularly hopeful the mass transit systems will see much needed improvements this year. On the other hand, there is little to justify hope that anyone can do something positive about the horrendous traffic jams any time soon.

Since our economy is largely consumer driven, there are those who talk about increased election expenditures moving the economy. Government brings up its expenditure level during election years and candidates spend billions to win and/or buy votes.

It may not be as simple as before, however. In the past, vote buying was at the retail level of the voter. Now, with computerized election, the scuttlebutt is that the election can be bought wholesale with little or no trickle down effect to the masa. 

Also, a large part of campaign expenses now go to established media channels, mainly television, with every 30 second spot costing at least half a million pesos. How much of media revenues eventually get recycled locally to fuel consumer expenditure is a hopeful guess.

Still, the fact that we are having an election is in itself good news that justifies hope in the new year. In a region where many of our neighbors are dictatorships as in Thailand, electing our top leaders is something we should be proud of.

Who that new president will be is still a question mark. But there should be reason to hope the new administration would have learned from the lessons of the current one. For starters, it seems anyone of the main contenders will have more empathy or ability to feel the pain of common people than P-Noy could ever muster.

We also hope the new one will be more determined to pursue infrastructure development than this one. It could be the end of teka teka unless Mar Roxas wins.

Also good reasons for hope are new projects that impact on our traffic problem may get completed this year. The NAIA Expressway should be ready by the end of the year. Portions of the NLEX-SLEX connector road of San Miguel may also be opened to the public.

In other infrastructure, the Caticlan airport is now ready to accept Airbus 320 flights, as it is now only waiting for CAAP to complete its certification process. That may mean cheaper flights to Boracay.

There is also the prospect of night flights as the airport is now capable for this. Very good news for our tourism guests who now suffer the indignities of that decrepit airport in Kalibo.

In technology, there is hope that a new rival to the duopoly lording it over our telco arena may start testing their facilities this year. This may just be the disruption we need to improve Internet service in the country.

Indeed, our country’s many problems aside, it would be foolish to sell the country short at this time. We Filipinos are hopeful about the new year because we somehow manage to meet whatever heavy challenges come our way each year.

Sometimes, I wonder if this very resilience of the Filipino is being abused by our leaders. The ruling economic and political elite take advantage of our forgiving and patient nature.

We cannot stop being hopeful. That’s the one strong trait that keeps us sane through all the turbulence we face each year. This is Fiesta Islands.

But it would be nice if we can go beyond being hopeful and go the full stretch to see our hopes and dreams come true.

Today, the first working day of 2016, let us do something ourselves to ensure our hopes are realized.

Here’s wishing a great year for everybody!

Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @boochanco