Exports seen to fuel Philippines GDP growth to 6.3% in Q4 – Barclays

MANILA, Philippines - Philippine economic growth could accelerate to 6.3 percent in the fourth quarter on improved exports data, UK-based investment bank Barclays said.

“With exports improving in November-December amid stable domestic demand, we expect growth to improve in Q4,” the bank said in its latest Emerging Markets Weekly report.

Latest government data showed exports surged 19.7 percent to $5.2 billion in November from the same month in 2013 on higher shipments of coconut oil, cathodes and sections of cathodes, machinery and transport equipment, chemicals, woodcrafts and furniture, among others.

Shipments of electronic products, which made up 49 percent of the country’s exports in November, also rose 27 percent to $2.5 billion during the month.

Barclays’ estimate for fourth quarter economic growth is faster than the dismal 5.3 percent registered in the third quarter of last year.

Official fourth quarter gross domestic product data will be released by the government on Thursday.

The domestic economy’s lower-than-expected growth in the third quarter was blamed on the government’s underspending. 

However, the growth was still supported by the manufacturing and services sector, fixed capital formation, and net exports during the three-month period.

The third quarter performance brought nine-month economic growth to 5.8 percent, below the government’s 6.5 to 7.5 percent target.

The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank earlier this month lowered their forecasts for Philippine economic growth in 2014 following the deceleration seen in the third quarter.

The IMF downgraded its estimated to 5.8 percent from 6.2 percent, while the World Bank cut its projection to six percent from 6.4 percent.