ADB warns of climate change impact on growth

MANILA, Philippines - The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has warned that catastrophic events brought about by climate change could stall economic growth in Southeast Asia, especially the Philippines.

ADB economist David Anthony Raitzer said a worst-case scenario under its integrated assessment model indicates that a natural catastrophic event could result in economic losses equivalent to 6.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

Based on World Bank eastimates, the combined destruction brought by typhoons Yolanda, Ondoy, Pepeng, Sendong and Pablo resulted in economic damage at $18.6 billion (approximately P799.8 billion.

In a media forum sponsored by the Philippine Agricultural Journalists Inc., Raitzer said the Philippines is in the top of the list of countries in Southeast Asia most affected by climate change.

“Manila is the second most vulnerable city in the world, and the Philippines is sixth most vulnerable country globally,” Raitzer said.

British risk consultancy Maplecroft, in its Change Vulnerability Index 2014, also ranked Manila among five cities worldwide facing “extreme” climate risk.

The ADB economist said in a “mild” disaster caused by climate change in Southeast Asia, economic losses from damaged marketed goods and services would reach an equivalent of 2.2 percent of GDP every year until 2100.

This could increase to 5.7 percent of GDP if it takes into account health and ecosystem service losses.

The ADB economist also noted that climate change would also result in an increase in length of the dry season, and greater intensity of rainy seasons especially in Luzon and the Visayas.

Key climate change impacts would be noticed from inundation and salinity intrusion, as well as coral bleaching and fisheries migration.

There would be changes to ecological niches and greater typhoon risks. Noticable would be dramatic rise in cardiovascular stress and increased vector suitability.

The hotter and longer dry season would likewise result in less agro-ecological productive activities, he added.