New exports plan scales down $120-B goal

MANILA, Philippines - The first draft of the new Philippine Export Development Plan (PEDP) expected to be released by next month, is unlikely to retain the $120 billion goal for 2016.

“The computation is being done now, but we feel it may be difficult to double up to $120 billion by 2016. It ($120 billion goal) might be pushed back by a year or two,” Sergio Ortiz-Luis Jr., private sector vice chairman of the Export Development Council (EDC) and president of the Philippine Exporters Confederation, Inc. said in a telephone interview.

He said consultations are being conducted on the new PEDP which would cover strategies and export targets for 2014 to 2016.

“By next month, we may already have the first draft,” he said.

Under the PEDP 2011 to 2013 approved by President Aquino in 2011, the goal is to double the value of total exports to $120 billion by 2016.

Last month, Trade Secretary Gregory Domingo told reporters, however, the department has slashed its exports projections, citing that it would be impossible to meet the $120 billion target by 2016.

“We need to set a still ambitious but realistic target, $120 billion is not achievable unless there is a miracle,” he said.

The country ended 2013 with total exports covering merchandise goods and services valued at $75.5 billion.

Domingo noted that to attain the initial $120 billion goal, exports would have to grow by about $17 billion per year beginning this year until 2016 and such would not be realistic.

For this year, the Trade chief forecasts total exports would grow 8.6 percent to reach $82 billion.

He said total exports are expected to rise by a faster pace of 10.4 percent to amount to $90.6 billion next year and increase further by 11.91 percent to reach $101.3 billion by 2016.

Service exports, which cover the information technology-business process management and tourism sectors, are seen to continue to grow.

For merchandise exports, while outbound shipments of electronic products are seen to turn positive this year, Domingo said the growth is not seen to make up for the decline in the previous years.

He said the department’s projections would need to be taken into account by the EDC in finalizing export targets under the new PEDP.

The EDC created by the Export Development Act of 1994, is composed of representatives from both the government and the private sector to develop and oversee the implementation of the PEDP as well as formulate policy reforms to support the plan.