Agri sector seen to grow 3.2%-4.2% this year

MANILA, Philippines - The Agriculture sector is seen to grow between 3.2-to 4.2-percent this year, driven by the crops, livestock and poultry subsectors.

In a briefing paper , the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said the three farm subsectors are expected to exceed year-on-year growth rates.

The crops subsector is expected to register a growth rate of between four- to five-percent this year against 0.09 last year. The livestock subsector is expected to grow between 1.2-to 2.5-percent this year against 1.75 last year, while the poultry subsector is seen to grow any where from 4.2- to  5.2-percent against 4.20 percent last year.

This year’s farm growth target is higher than the actual growth rate of 1. 15 percent in 2013, but lower than the original growth target of three-to five-percent previously set. 

“We’ve set this growth target considering the abnormal changes in climate and the need for greater investments in infrastructure. Considering these, accomplishments in agriculture cannot just leap frog,” said Agriculture Secretary Proceso Alcala on the sidelines of the Philippine Economic briefing in Pasay City yesterday.

In the briefing paper, NEDA said the Philippines would be able to attain 100 percent self-sufficiency in rice by 2015 with a total palay (unhusked rice) production of 20.50 million metric tons (MT). The Philippines’ target of attaining self-sufficiency in the grain last year was derailed by a series of strong typhoons that demolished large tracts of rice production areas.

The livestock and poultry subsectors are seen as bright spots in the farm industry as these remain free from animal diseases like foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and avian influenza that warrant international trade restrictions.

Such diseases continue to plague neighboring Asian countries like Thailand, South Korea, China, and Hong Kong.

The Agriculture department sees this as an industry asset that would enable the sectors to be competitive when free trade within Southeast Asia is enforced by 2015.

In its recently-released Swine Situation and Outlook for 2014, the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) said domestic demand for pork is expected to rise 5.17 percent this year from a year ago.

Expectations of robust demand becomes encouraging for animal raisers. BAS forecasts pork supply this year to rise by 3.25 percent from a year ago.

BAS said that a pork surplus of 925 MT is expected in the first quarter of 2014 which is likely to be followed by a deficit of 6, 027 MT in the second quarter. Surpluses of 13, 955 MT and 23, 671 MT expected in the third and fourth quarters respectively.

Hog production in 2013 was placed at two million MT in live weight, up 1.95 percent year-on-year.  This year, production is expected to grow 2.46 percent from last year.

Broiler production, which has been continuously high, is expected to outpace demand this year. As such, retailers continue to enjoy low farmgate prices.

In its broiler Situation and Outlook for this year, BAS said a surplus of 68, 994 MT is seen this year as “the expected growth in broiler supply is much higher than the expected growth in demand.”

This year, total broiler meat supply is seen to reach 967, 768 MT while demand may reach 898, 824 MT.