8.7% export growth projected

MANILA, Philippines - Merchandise exports likely rose faster in October than in the previous month due to a low base in the same period last year, UK-based Barclays said.

In its Global Economics Weekly report, the investment bank said Philippine outbound shipments likely grew 8.7 percent in October, faster than September’s 4.9 percent.

However, this is still slower than the 11-month high of 20.2 percent growth recorded in August.

“Exports to contract on a month-on-month basis, in line with seasonal trends, but a low base should support year-on-year growth,” Barclays said.

Official October exports data will be released by the government on Tuesday, Dec. 10.

Merchandise exports expanded 6.1 percent to $4.408 billion in October 2012 from the same month in 2011.

The growth in outbound shipments in October last year was driven by tuna, coconut oil, bananas, petroleum products, metal components, woodworks, and electronic products.

Electronic products, which accounted for 43.1 percent of total exports in that period, increased a more 0.3 percent an annual basis.

Barclays noted that merchandise exports for the rest of the year will likely be affected by supply shocks resulting from recent typhoons.

“Typhoon-related disruptions likely to affect exports from November,” Barclays said.

Outbound shipments expanded 4.9 percent to $5.045 billion in September from $4.811 billion a year ago.

The growth was supported by an increase in shipments of mineral products, cathodes and sections of cathodes, other manufactures, ignition wiring set and other wiring sets used in vehicles, aircraft and ships, metal components, electronic products, articles of apparel and clothing accessories, and chemicals.

This brought the nine-month tally to $40.048 billion, a contraction of 0.1 percent from the same period last year.

The Department of Trade and Industry earlier said it expects the value of merchandise exports this year to match last year’s, following the Semiconductor and Electronics Industries in the Philippines Inc.’s projection of a 10 to 12 percent decline in shipments of electronic products.

Electronic products make up the bulk of the country’s merchandise exports.