NEDA chief sees economy sustaining above 7% growth

MANILA, Philippines - The country’s chief economic planner said he expects the Philippine economy to expand by over seven percent in the third quarter of 2013, remaining on course to close the year well above seven percent.

Socioeconomic Planning secretary and National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) director general Arsenio Balisacan expressed confidence on the sustained strong performance of the economy despite the number of natural disasters that occurred in the July to September period.

“For the third quarter, it is likely to be above seven (percent). The typhoon and floods (will have an impact), but maybe marginal,” he said.

The economy, as measured by the gross domestic product (GDP), gain 7. 5 percent in the second quarter, the fourth consecutive quarter of over seven percent growth.

Balisacan also noted that the US Federal government shutdown will make an initial impact on stock markets and global interest rates.

But pointed out that the bourse would likely move sideways as investors take a wait-and-see stance.

He said he is not too concerned as the Philippine economy is already making adjustments to the tapering of the US Federal Reserve.

 â€œMany of those things that we have seen in the US – the tapering, etc. – these have been incorporated in the decision making of many of the financial players. Even if the tapering will come, it will not be as explosive as what has been the case as the first time it had been mentioned. People have adjusted,” he said on the sidelines of the 12th National Convention on Statistics yesterday.

He shrugged off any concerns of its impact on the economy in general, arguing that it paled in comparison to the 2008 financial crisis.

However, Balisacan cautioned that there could be a negative impact on the Philippine economy if the shutdown is prolonged.

He said that a prolonged “dormant” US economy would first impact on military deployment, then Philippine exports as buying will slow down.

Trade and the financial system will be the least affected in the short term, as deals have already been made long before the shutdown.

 â€œThese have been absorbed and taken into account by the financial markets. I don’t think it will create much of a difference,” Balisacan added.

The US government shutdown generally means that the state will stop providing most of its services except the most critical such as medical services, weather services, police and military services.