FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) – A key index of business optimism on Friday reinforced what an increasing number of economists are saying: Germany is beginning to see an upswing – even as the rest of the 17-country euro zone struggles with economic and financial turmoil over too much debt.
The Ifo institute survey of business executives published Friday edged up to 109.9 points from 109.8 the month before, beating market expectations of a slight decline. That follows an unexpected fifth straight monthly rise Wednesday in the ZEW index, which measures the outlook among investment professionals.
Both are leading indicators, suggesting where the economy might be headed in the next six months. Economists say these and other data mean Germany may now have avoided a recession and this year will easily outpacing the eurozone as a whole, which is expected to shrink 0.3 percent this year.
Leading economic institutes this week raised their forecast for 2012 to 0.9 percent from a 0.8 percent prediction last fall, and predicted two percent growth next year. Some economists now think the economy grew in the first quarter as well, avoiding a second straight quarter of contraction after a slight 0.2 dip in the fourth quarter of last year. Two quarters of falling output is a technical definition of recession.
Both parts of the Ifo index – estimates of current conditions and expectations for the next six months – were up. Sentiment rose among both industrial firms, which are often oriented toward exports in Germany, and retailers, which depend on domestic demand. Economists say Germany’s low unemployment rate of 5.7 percent is giving workers the confidence they need to spend money in stores.
“The German economy is showing itself to be resilient,” said Ifo institute head Hans-Werner Sinn.
Germany is motoring ahead even as fears worsen about the eurozone debt crisis. Spain and Italy are seeing higher costs to borrow money on bond markets and roll over their debt loads, while their economic growth is sagging. Their troubles – which could mean big losses for shaky banks if governments can’t pay – hold out a threat to the European and global economies.