NEW YORK (AP) – Investors thinking of buying a piece of Facebook after it goes public are hoping it will perform like Google, whose stock has risen 500 percent since its debut seven and a half years ago.
But they may want to spare a thought for companies slightly less exciting — a truck leasing company, perhaps, or a manufacturer of ball bearings.
Stocks of those two have left Google, and the investors who didn’t get into it early, in the dust in the past several years. So have more than half the companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index.
Since the stock market peaked on Oct. 9, 2007, Ryder System Inc., which rents moving trucks, has returned 26 percent, counting dividends. Timken, the ball bearing company, 49 percent.
And the staid Johnson & Johnson, the 125-year-old maker of Tucks ointment to relieve hemorrhoids among thousands of other products, has trounced Google, too — returning 12 percent with dividends.
Google is up more than most stocks if you pick a different starting point, like 2004. But measured from the market peak, it’s down 1.5 percent. In other words, the people who got in then still haven’t broken even — four and half years later.
Even Microsoft, the lumbering software company whose best days are widely considered behind it, has done better, returning 12 percent, counting dividends.
The lesson is that when it comes to hot stocks, you can sit on losses for years if you happen to buy at the top and can’t make up ground with dividend checks.
“They move like rockets, straight up,” says Robert Russell, president of Russell & Co., a wealth management company in Ohio. “But they can fall back to earth, too.”
In a filing earlier this month, Facebook said it plans to sell a yet-unknown stake for $5 billion, the largest for an Internet company’s initial public offering. The buzz is that the offering could value the whole company at as much as $100 billion — more than Hewlett-Packard, AOL and Yahoo combined.
Whether the newly public stock — ticker symbol FB — will prove profitable for investors is another matter.
For a taste of the dangers of buying stock in companies in the spotlight, check out the performance of Internet IPOs last year. You’ve done OK if you got in at the offering price, set before the stock starts trading. But that’s mostly reserved for the favored customers — pension funds, mutual funds, hedge funds and other institutions. The little guy isn’t doing nearly as well.
After sharp rises on the first day of trading, most stocks have fallen. That’s true for Groupon Inc., the online daily deals site, Pandora Media Inc., an Internet radio operator, and the consumer reviews site Angie’s List Inc.