Phl seen rising to 16th largest economy by '50

MANILA, Philippines - The Philippines is forecast to leapfrog and become the 16th largest economy in the world by 2050, according to a study by the HongKong and Shanghai Banking Corp. (HSBC).

“We highlight the striking rise of the Philippines, which is set to become the world’s 16th-largest economy, up 27 places from today,” said the report, ‘The World in 2050,’ which was released yesterday.

It pointed out that the per capita income in the Philippines is seen to rise to $10,893 in 2050 from the present $1,215. However, its population is likewise seen to balloon to 155 million from the current 93 million.

HSBC, however, explained that the forecast is based on the economy’s current level of development and the factors determining whether it has the potential to catch up with the more developed nations.

“These fundamentals include current income per capita, rule of law, democracy, education levels and demographic change,” it explained.

The Philippines was also included in what the bank termed as the “fast-growth countries.” Others in that category are China, India, Malaysia, Bangladesh, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Peru, Ecuador, Egypt and Jordan.

These countries “share a very low level of development but have made great progress in improving fundamentals . . . . they should enjoy many years of ‘copy and paste’ growth ahead,” the report said.

‘Copy and paste’ refers to the stage of a developing economy when it opens itself and adapts to the world’s existing technologies.

Noticeable in the list is that all economies are classified with the emerging markets or developing nations that are outside the “danger zones” of the eurozone and the United States.

The factors that would dictate on the economies’ growth are education, democracy, fertility, capital investments, corporate governance, and the rule of law, HSBC said.

It added that the Philippines is poised to experience a “multi-decade run” of strong growth that includes China and Pakistan.

The HSBC report projects that the Philippine per capita income will expand by an average 6.1 percent in the period 2010 to 2020; 5.6 percent from 2020-2030; 5.2 percent in 2030-2040; and 4.8 percent in 2040-2050.

For gross domestic product (GDP), growth in the period 2010-2020, is estimated at an average 8.4 percent; from 2020-2030, by an average 7.3 percent; from 2030-2040 by an average 6.6 percent; and from 2040-2050 an average 5.8 percent.

But the strongest growth “with extraordinary prospects” is China, India, Malaysia, Mexico, Colombia and Turkey. These countries are expected to exert a lot of influence in the world economy, un-seating a large number of economies presently classified as developed, HSBC said.

“Countries like the Philippines, Peru and Nigeria all demonstrate some combination of favorable demographics and strong fundamentals that should see a significant rise in their economic rise,” the report added.