Beware the Ides of March?

Last Thursday, Felino Palafox Jr., the foremost Filipino environmental planner, called me to clarify an item in the column of Babes Romualdez about the Management Association of the Philippines. He gave me facts and figures to prove things have improved at MAP but I was more interested in other things.

I asked Jun what he knew about a study made some years ago that detailed the earthquake dangers we faced in Metro Manila that also offered an action plan. That’s the JICA study he said, and he offered to send me a copy pronto. He gave me a gist of what the study is all about and soon after we were done talking, his efficient secretary e-mailed me a copy.

My interest in the JICA study was rekindled by all the earthquakes happening lately along the Pacific Ring of Fire from New Zealand to China. This conversation with Jun happened 24 hours before that devastating 8.9 temblor that caused a tsunami in Japan.

The study is a joint undertaking of JICA, MMDA and PHIVOLCS. It is a master plan for Earthquake Impact Reduction, a road map to achieve the vision of a safer Metro Manila. It contains 34 frameworks, each addressing specific goals and objectives. It addresses Metro Manila’s most imminent earthquake disaster management issues. It offered the view that the existing earthquake management system in the Philippines is not enough to cope with the expected damage from an earthquake in our National Capital Region.

It starts off with the information that there are numerous earthquake sources located in and around Metro Manila. Among these faults is the Valley Fault System (or the Marikina Fault), considered to be potentially the most devastating if an earthquake happens here. The study said should it generate a large earthquake, it will cause the largest impact to the Metro Manila area.

According to the JICA study, many research studies indicate that active phases of the Valley Faults are approaching or in other words, it is due for an earthquake. Should that earthquake happen, the estimated magnitude will be around 7 or higher.

In order to manage a potential earthquake disaster of that magnitude in Metro Manila, the study said it is necessary to prepare an earthquake disaster mitigation plan. It also emphasized there is no time to waste. Obviously, our officials during the Ate Glue watch didn’t share the sense of urgency that was contained in the JICA study.

I read the details of the study and the outcome of such an earthquake is simply horrifying. They did simulation studies of possible earthquakes from various faults in the region. A simulation of an earthquake in the West Valley fault indicated that such an earthquake will make last Friday’s Japan quake seem like a tea party. I have lifted the words of that study in the following paragraphs just so our readers will capture the serious concern the scientists have expressed.

A rupture of West Valley fault will cause approximately 40 percent of total number of residential buildings within Metro Manila to collapse or be affected. As the worst case, the study predicts that 170,000 houses will collapse, 340,000 residential houses will be partly damaged, 34,000 persons will die, 114,000 persons will be injured. Fire will break out and burn approximately 1,710 hectares and 18,000 additional persons will be killed by this secondary disaster. Moreover, infrastructure and lifelines will also be heavily damaged.

There will be massive building collapse and evacuation difficulty in North Eastern Quezon City area, Western Marikina City area, Eastern Pasig City area, Muntinglupa Laguna de Bay area and Mandaluyong, Makati City border area.

Metro Manila will possibly be separated into four regions by the earthquake impact. Western part of Metro Manila will be isolated from other parts of Metro Manila by fire and building collapse. Northern and Southern part of Metro Manila will be separated by building collapse. The intersecting area between Mandaluyong and Makati has a high possibility of building collapse.

All road networks running East to West which are on the fault will be broken due to the movement. Other roads running North to South in fault areas will be difficult to use, due to the high number of building collapse.

The study has 105 identified action plans in the master plan, 40 of them are selected as high priority action plans... which means essential plans to be initiated within three to six years.

There are a lot of technical details in the study that seems boring to the lay man. Jun Palafox had written P-Noy about it soon after his election and is waiting for a response. If something like what the study said could happen actually happens, no one can say we had not been warned.

Uranus

The JICA study is a scientific one that was prepared by men and women of science. But one cannot help get a feeling that in this case, science is not enough in the sense that it cannot explain or predict everything with a high degree of confidence. The JICA study made reasonable assumptions based on what data they have.

It was just uncanny that the news about the Japan earthquake came to me while I was having lunch with my astrologer friend, a former journalist I had covered events with when I was a young reporter. If you ask her, she will insist there is a science to astrology too… a body of knowledge based on centuries of observations by pretty learned people. In fact she once told me, it is very mathematical. And to cross check what her computations tell her, she goes back to history to see if past events confirm her findings.

I have always kept an open mind on matters I don’t understand or do not have the time and patience to understand. So as we sat down for lunch in a Greek restaurant at Shangri-la mall, about an hour or so before the Japan quake, I asked her what she thought of all these earthquakes happening around us.

She said she expected such convulsions. It had something to do with the planet Uranus moving into Aries, one of those things I do not understand. Anyway, she said that the movement will come on or about the 11th of March (which was that very day we were meeting) and the various manifestations could continue to happen in the next few days.

Oh, the Ides of March, I exclaimed. Not exactly, she said, because that would be the 15th but it is possible since it is in the general time frame. It is a time of change that will astound us. Uranus in Aries will be expressed in very surprising ways… exciting yet scary.

Just as we were finishing up our meal, my associate Rosan, who was busy fiddling with her Blackberry, reported that an 8.9 earthquake just shook Japan. So my friend said that was exactly what she meant. The natural manifestations of this astrological configuration could indeed be earthquakes and tsunamis or even volcanic eruptions.

Later in the afternoon, Rosan Googled the Uranus in Aries configuration and found out that it could also mean that “people will be challenged to release attachments to structures they thought were stable and enduring. Changes in government, organized religions, sciences, medicine and the general sociological organization of society” could happen. That’s probably what’s happening in the Middle East now. 

Oh well… my so-called scientific mind finds all these difficult to accept. Then again, the warning to Julius Ceasar to “beware the Ides of March” didn’t come from a scientific person. The warning probably came from an astrologer who looked at the stars and saw the earthly danger Julius Ceasar faced on that day from people, one of whom he thought was his very best friend.

Maybe, if our officials won’t listen to the scientists who worked on the JICA study that warns us of grave danger from an earthquake in Metro Manila, they will start thinking about what my astrologer friend had to say about it too. When men of science and astrologers are saying the same thing, it is probably time to listen and act.

Q and A

This is from Jose Villaescusa.

Q: What do you call an honest person in Congress who comes to work regularly and performs his duties diligently?

A: Why of course...it’s the JANITOR!

Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is [email protected]. He is also on Tweeter @boochanco