Six years of possibilities

I know it takes a lot for a group of journalists to feel even remotely hopeful about something they have been covering for years that produced mostly stories of one disaster or another, specially of the man-made variety. But the folks at the Foreign Correspondents Association of the Philippines or FOCAP are surprisingly hopeful this year, tagging their regular start-of-the-year prospects conference: Six Years of Possibilities.

Contrary to popular notions, journalists are human beings too who want to see the brighter side of life, of humanity, of the Philippines. It is just that people can’t seem to understand that journalists are not propagandists and are obliged to tell the whole story with all its warts.

It’s just that our nation’s story had been pretty full of warts these past years and it seems the FOCAP folks are tired of it too. Against their better judgment, they are apparently trying to be positive at least for the first few weeks of the year.

I thought the FOCAP conference this year, given its theme, is worthy of my getting up three hours earlier to get to the venue. Alas. it was as I suspected, a conditional kind of hopefulness, not just by the FOCAP folks but also by the panel of speakers they invited.

The reverberating theme of the morning revolved around the fresh wind of confidence and positive sentiment for the country arising from a new leaderin Malacañang who promises serious reforms, good governance and a break from the culture of corruption.

Even Sen. Bongbong Marcos, suspected to be preparing for a run for Malacañang himself in 2016, admitted he is “watching with great interest how the administration will use the outstanding popularity of the President to institute reforms in government.” In a voice that mimics his late father, Marcos acknowledged the popularity of P-Noy and expressed hope that he will use it to unite our people to achieve stability for the country.

Chief Justice Renato Corona, snubbed by the President during his oath-taking, took pains in his keynote to debunk popular notions about a rift between the Executive and Judicial branches of government. They are just doing their constitutional duty, he said, nothing personal. In other words, if they struck down some things P-Noy wanted to do, Corona insisted it is only because these are truly unconstitutional.

Corona reassured that the Courts under his watch will not be a hindrance to government’s drive to attract investments and boost the economy. And like everyone in the panel, he too observed that it would be a great loss of opportunity if P-Noy is unable to ride on what is now a high level of public trust on him.

Economic Planning Secretary Dondon Paderanga offered the reassurance that the administration will deliver on what he calls the President’s social contract with the people for inclusive growth. He expressed confidence that the administration will not miss the opportunity now made possible by positive sentiment for the country to raise our people above poverty.

The business sector represented by young taipan Lance Gokongwei was pretty upbeat too. He recognized the efforts of the six month old administration to achieve greater fiscal discipline, leading to a lower deficit to GDP ratio. He cited the successful global peso note issuance was made possible by improving credit metrics that resulted from the change of administration.

“I think the Finance Team’s done a great job in plugging the budget deficit (in fact lower as a percentage of GNP than Germany, in a fast growing emerging country to boot), national government revenues are up double digit, spending is controlled, etc.  This has improved Philippines reputation with capital markets and lower inflation – resulting in availability of long term money both dollar and peso. Very helpful to high capex kind of investments in manufacturing, tourism and infrastructure,” Mr. Gokongwei observed.

Mr. Gokongwei said all these positive sentiments arising from the early achievements of the Finance Team resulted in much lower interest rates which is now stimulating business activity, residential property development, job creation and consumer spending. Now, he said, because the country’s financial and economic prospects look much better, Philippine corporates are able to access both international and growing domestic equity and debt capital markets.

But the young Gokongwei worries that the fast growing share in the contribution of OFWs and BPOs in our country’s GDP, now at 15 percent, may not be sustainable. To achieve sustainable economic growth, Gokongwei said we have to build a base beyond OFWs and BPOs.

Gokongwei pointed out that these two sectors are able to grow because they are least dependent on access to long-term capital, ease of doing business or efficient bureaucracy and adequate infrastructure. These three requirements for sustainable growth beyond OFWs and BPOs can only happen, Gokongwei said if P-NOY is successful on his mission of addressing corruption and making the bureaucracy more business friendly.

“For the government to deliver on creating employment outside the middle class or the well educated, we need to develop manufacturing and tourism sectors which have a lot more dependencies on the availability of long-term capital, ease of doing business and infrastructure. The challenge is therefore obvious to keep up the gains on the capital markets side with similar momentum on the other planks necessary to support economic growth, and job creation, i.e. infrastructure and “ease of doing business” side.”

To Lance, we need to boost manufacturing and service sector industries that do not require intensive technical training in order to create jobs that are now much needed by the millions more who are unable to go abroad. In so many words, he doesn’t seem to think government should continue depending on the Filipino people to fend for themselves any which way they can and expect the economy to grow as fast as is needed to reduce poverty.

He urged the administration to keep its focus on three areas: access to capital; infrastructure and ease of doing business. We have achieved a lot in terms of improved access to capital, he said and the PPP is also a welcome development. But, he declared that on reducing bureaucracy and corruption, the jury is still out on whether what is now being done will be enough to attract money into infra development.

He lamented that business is still at the mercy of the bureaucracy, specially at the local level. Citing an example, he revealed that setting up a cell site still requires more than 50 signatures. We need to simplify bureaucratic and administrative processes, he said.

In the area of security, an American security and political risk expert who has worked for a while in the Philippines told the FOCAP gathering that P-Noy cannot afford another security lapse similar to the hostage-taking incident last year that resulted in the death of eight tourists from Hong Kong.

“The people expected more from him here and abroad,” said Pete Troilo, director of Business Intelligence at Manila-based security and political risk consultancy Pacific Strategies & Assessments. The botched rescue operation during the 11-hour hostage-taking incident at Quirino Grandstand in Manila was a setback to Aquino’s administration, said Troilo. If a similar incident takes place, Troilo said, it could affect investors’ confidence.

Troilo also warned that the continued extortion by elements of the NPA in what they euphemistically call “revolutionary taxes” is painting a picture of the government as being unable to uphold the rule of law. This, he said, is a big negative consideration for investors. He doesn’t believe the peace talks with the MILF or the CPP-NPA will amount to much unless the government adopts a dramatic shift in strategy and approach.

The crime situation in Manila is within the range of some major world cities, he observed. But he also pointed out that reports of a syndicate with spotters in the NAIA terminals pointing out potential hijacking victims “scare investors beyond belief.”

On the whole, he said, the government suffers from a serious perception problem: does it have the capacity to help a foreigner in cases of emergency, whether threats from criminal elements or even just timely provision of adequate medical services.

As the forum closed, the question remained: will P-Noy waste this golden opportunity being provided by favorable sentiment from here and abroad to take the country forward? Six Years of Possibilities! Indeed, this country under P-Noy may continue to be a nation of possibilities… even great possibilities… but based on early indications, only in our dreams.

Car stickers

From Rosan Cruz:

On a septic tank truck: Yesterday’s meals on wheels.

On a funeral car: Your end is our beginning.

On a political protester’s car: Fight organized crime: Re-elect no one!

Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is  [email protected]