Agri seen to grow by 3.5% next year

MANILA, Philippines - The agriculture sector is projected to a recover next year, posting a possible growth of 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent, an expert in agricultural economics said yesterday.

In a yearend briefing yesterday, Dr. Rolando Dy of the University of Asia and the Pacific (UAP) said the top performers next year would continue to be palay, corn and banana.

Dr. Dy said he expects the palay subsector to perform better next year as the La Niña remains weak to moderate, thus encouraging plantings in the first semester. Palay growth in 2011 could range from 5.5 percent to 6.5 percent, he said.

Harvests in the last quarter of 2010 may spill over to the first quarter of 2011, he added.

For corn, Dr. Dy forecasts a production growth of 14.5 percent to 15.5 percent topping the 2009 level of seven million metric tons.

The recovery in corn production, Dr. Dy said, would be due to an increase in area and yield given favorable market prices and weather conditions. He said world corn prices may be high next year which is also prompting the higher local corn production.

For the coconut sector, Dr. Dy noted that the prolonged dry spell in the first half of 2010 is expected to take a toll on the sector particularly in the second semester. Thus a slight negative performance is expected for the coconut sector next year.

For sugarcane, the decline in production is expected to slow down with a contraction of 1.5 percent to 2.5 percent next year compared to drop of 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent this year.

Because of this, sugar prices are expected to remain high next year.

For banana, Dr. Dy projects a growth with domestic demand expected to remain strong and export demand to pick up with the resolution of the Iran issue and expansion of markets in China, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Belgium and Australia.

For livestock, Dr. Dy also sees a recovery with a minimal growth of one to two percent in 2011.